Match!

Comparative Modeling of Tuberculosis Epidemiology and Policy Outcomes in California

Published on Feb 1, 2020in American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine16.494
· DOI :10.1164/rccm.201907-1289OC
Nicolas A. Menzies11
Estimated H-index: 11
(Harvard University),
Andrea Parriott3
Estimated H-index: 3
(UCSF: University of California, San Francisco)
+ 12 AuthorsPriya B. Shete8
Estimated H-index: 8
(UCSF: University of California, San Francisco)
Abstract
Rationale Mathematical modelling is used to understand disease dynamics, forecast trends, and inform public health prioritization. We conducted a comparative analysis of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiol...
  • References (26)
  • Citations (1)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
27 Citations
2004
34 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
References26
Newest
#1Sourya Shrestha (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 10
#2Sarah T. Cherng (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 1
Last. David Wesley Dowdy (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 38
view all 12 authors...
Source
#1Amish Talwar (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
#2Clarisse A. Tsang (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 5
Last. Adam J. Langer (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 10
view all 7 authors...
Source
#1Alex J. GoodellH-Index: 4
#2Priya B. SheteH-Index: 8
Last. James S. KahnH-Index: 69
view all 11 authors...
Source
#1Nicolas A. Menzies (Harvard University)H-Index: 11
#2Ted Cohen (Yale University)H-Index: 37
Last. Joshua A. Salomon (Stanford University)H-Index: 84
view all 8 authors...
8 CitationsSource
#1Nicolas A. Menzies (Harvard University)H-Index: 11
#2Emory E Wolf (Harvard University)H-Index: 3
Last. Joshua A. Salomon (Stanford University)H-Index: 84
view all 12 authors...
Summary Mathematical modelling is commonly used to evaluate infectious disease control policy and is influential in shaping policy and budgets. Mathematical models necessarily make assumptions about disease natural history and, if these assumptions are not valid, the results of these studies can be biased. We did a systematic review of published tuberculosis transmission models to assess the validity of assumptions about progression to active disease after initial infection (PROSPERO ID CRD42016...
12 CitationsSource
#1Romain Ragonnet (Burnet Institute)H-Index: 7
#2James M. Trauer (Monash University)H-Index: 11
Last. Emma S. McBryde (University of Melbourne)H-Index: 28
view all 6 authors...
Although different structures are used in modern tuberculosis (TB) models to simulate TB latency, it remains unclear whether they are all capable of reproducing the particular activation dynamics empirically observed. We aimed to determine which of these structures replicate the dynamics of progression accurately. We reviewed 88 TB-modelling articles and classified them according to the latency structure employed. We then fitted these different models to the activation dynamics observed from 135...
8 CitationsSource
#1Sourya Shrestha (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 10
#2Andrew N. Hill (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 9
Last. David Wesley Dowdy (Johns Hopkins University)H-Index: 38
view all 4 authors...
Rationale: There is substantial state-to-state heterogeneity in tuberculosis (TB) in the United States; better understanding this heterogeneity can inform effective response to TB at the state level, the level at which most TB control efforts are coordinated.Objectives: To characterize drivers of state-level heterogeneity in TB epidemiology in the four U.S. states that bear half the country’s TB burden: California, Florida, New York, and Texas.Methods: We constructed an individual-based model of...
6 CitationsSource
#1Anthony T Fojo (JHUSOM: Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine)H-Index: 2
#2Natalie Stennis (DOHMH: New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene)H-Index: 4
Last. David W Dowdy (JHUSOM: Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine)H-Index: 1
view all 7 authors...
Summary Background After steady decline since the 1990s, tuberculosis incidence in New York City and throughout the USA has plateaued. We aimed to explore the major drivers of the flattening of tuberculosis incidence in New York City and to project the future trajectory of the tuberculosis epidemic in the absence of any additional intervention. Methods We developed a compartmental transmission model of tuberculosis in New York City. The model was parameterised with detailed epidemiological data ...
6 CitationsSource
#1David M. Lewinsohn (OHSU: Oregon Health & Science University)H-Index: 48
#2Michael K. Leonard (Emory University)H-Index: 14
Last. Gail L. Woods (University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences)H-Index: 11
view all 18 authors...
Individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) may develop symptoms and signs of disease (tuberculosis disease) or may have no clinical evidence of disease (latent tuberculosis infection [LTBI]). Tuberculosis disease is a leading cause of infectious disease morbidity and mortality worldwide, yet many questions related to its diagnosis remain.A task force supported by the American Thoracic Society, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Infectious Diseases Society of America ...
176 CitationsSource
#1Rein M. G. J. Houben (Lond: University of London)H-Index: 21
#2Nicolas A. Menzies (Harvard University)H-Index: 11
Last. Richard G. White (Lond: University of London)H-Index: 38
view all 50 authors...
Summary Background The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. Methods 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for pre...
44 CitationsSource
Cited By1
Newest
#1Masahiro Narita (Public Health – Seattle & King County)H-Index: 1
#1Masahiro Narita (Public Health – Seattle & King County)H-Index: 19
Last. Joseph Burzynski (DOHMH: New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
Source