Original paper
Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience
Abstract
It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people are effective at estimating the frequency of data accurately in environments that are characterized by plentiful, unbiased feedback. Thus, forecasters should provide decision makers with simulation models that allow them to...
Paper Details
Title
Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience
Published Date
Aug 1, 2015
Journal
Volume
68
Issue
8
Pages
1800 - 1809
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Notes
History