Match!
Robin M. Hogarth
Pompeu Fabra University
145Publications
45H-index
14.4kCitations
Publications 148
Newest
#1Mariona Portell (Autonomous University of Barcelona)H-Index: 12
#2Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
Last.Anna Cuxart Jardí (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 6
view all 3 authors...
The Experience Sampling Method (ESM) allows the examination of ongoing thoughts, feelings and actions as they occur in the course of everyday life. A prime benefit is that it captures events in their natural context, thereby complementing information obtained by more traditional techniques. We used ESM to study time and mood at work. Our data were collected by sending 30 text messages over 10 working days to each of 168 part-time workers. On each occasion, respondents assessed their mood. We exp...
Source
#1Ralph Hertwig (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 46
#2Robin M. HogarthH-Index: 45
Last.Tomás Lejarraga (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 8
view all 3 authors...
Experience and description are powerful ways of learning and adaptation. Recently, evidence has shown that these can imply systematically distinct cognitions and behaviors. However, there has been ...
10 CitationsSource
#1Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
#2Emre Soyer (Özyeğin University)H-Index: 6
Our society venerates experience. It feels right to trust our own experience and that of others. But experience also has adverse effects. Much learning is tacit in nature and, because people are typically unaware and uncritical of the conditions in which this takes place, experience can lead to false beliefs and subsequent actions can reinforce biases. We adopt a two-settings framework in which experience is conceptualized as being acquired in one setting (learning) and then applied in another (...
1 CitationsSource
#1Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
3 CitationsSource
#1Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
#2Tomás Lejarraga (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 8
Last.Emre Soyer (Özyeğin University)H-Index: 6
view all 3 authors...
Inference involves two settings: In the first, information is acquired (learning); in the second, it is applied (predictions or choices). Kind learning environments involve close matches between the informational elements in the two settings and are a necessary condition for accurate inferences. Wicked learning environments involve mismatches. This conceptual framework facilitates identifying sources of inferential errors and can be used, among other things, to suggest how to target corrective p...
20 CitationsSource
#1Emre Soyer (Özyeğin University)H-Index: 6
#2Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
Abstract We test people’s ability to learn to estimate a criterion (probability of success in a competition scenario) that requires aggregating information in a nonlinear manner. The learning environments faced by experimental participants are kind in that they are characterized by immediate, accurate feedback involving either naturalistic outcomes (information on winning and/or ranking) or the normatively correct probabilities. We find no evidence of learning from the former and modest learning...
1 CitationsSource
#1Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
#2Emre Soyer (Özyeğin University)H-Index: 6
Abstract Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statisti...
18 CitationsSource
#1Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
#2Emre Soyer (Özyeğin University)H-Index: 6
It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people are effective at estimating the frequency of data accurately in environments that are characterized by plentiful, unbiased feedback. Thus, forecasters should provide decision makers with simulation models that allow them to experience the frequencies of potential outcomes. Be...
9 CitationsSource
#1Emre Soyer (Özyeğin University)H-Index: 6
#2Robin M. Hogarth (UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)H-Index: 45
In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden Rule: its scope of application, the importance of highly improbable events, and the challenges of communicating forecasts.
2 CitationsSource
#1Emre SoyerH-Index: 6
#2Robin M. HogarthH-Index: 45
4 Citations
12345678910