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Robin M. Hogarth
Pompeu Fabra University
143Publications
44H-index
14.1kCitations
Publications 143
Newest
Published on Apr 1, 2018in Current Directions in Psychological Science 4.48
Ralph Hertwig44
Estimated H-index: 44
(MPG: Max Planck Society),
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
,
Tomás Lejarraga7
Estimated H-index: 7
(MPG: Max Planck Society)
Experience and description are powerful ways of learning and adaptation. Recently, evidence has shown that these can imply systematically distinct cognitions and behaviors. However, there has been little integrative conceptual work. Drawing on different lines of research, we characterize experience and description, sketch the factors that influence learning from them, and suggest how to reconcile previously disparate research. We propose that much can be gained by studying the behavioral, cognit...
Published on Dec 29, 2016
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
(UPF: Pompeu Fabra University),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
Our society venerates experience. It feels right to trust our own experience and that of others. But experience also has adverse effects. Much learning is tacit in nature and, because people are typically unaware and uncritical of the conditions in which this takes place, experience can lead to false beliefs and subsequent actions can reinforce biases. We adopt a two-settings framework in which experience is conceptualized as being acquired in one setting (learning) and then applied in another (...
Published on Dec 18, 2015
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
(UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)
Published on Oct 1, 2015in Current Directions in Psychological Science 4.48
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
(UPF: Pompeu Fabra University),
Tomás Lejarraga7
Estimated H-index: 7
(MPG: Max Planck Society),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
Inference involves two settings: In the first, information is acquired (learning); in the second, it is applied (predictions or choices). Kind learning environments involve close matches between the informational elements in the two settings and are a necessary condition for accurate inferences. Wicked learning environments involve mismatches. This conceptual framework facilitates identifying sources of inferential errors and can be used, among other things, to suggest how to target corrective p...
Published on Sep 1, 2015in Cognitive Psychology 3.75
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University),
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
(UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)
Abstract We test people’s ability to learn to estimate a criterion (probability of success in a competition scenario) that requires aggregating information in a nonlinear manner. The learning environments faced by experimental participants are kind in that they are characterized by immediate, accurate feedback involving either naturalistic outcomes (information on winning and/or ranking) or the normatively correct probabilities. We find no evidence of learning from the former and modest learning...
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
(UPF: Pompeu Fabra University),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
Abstract Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statisti...
Published on Aug 1, 2015in Journal of Business Research 4.03
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
(UPF: Pompeu Fabra University),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people are effective at estimating the frequency of data accurately in environments that are characterized by plentiful, unbiased feedback. Thus, forecasters should provide decision makers with simulation models that allow them to experience the frequencies of potential outcomes. Be...
Published on Aug 1, 2015in Journal of Business Research 4.03
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University),
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
(UPF: Pompeu Fabra University)
In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden Rule: its scope of application, the importance of highly improbable events, and the challenges of communicating forecasts.
Published on May 1, 2015
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
,
Robin M. Hogarth44
Estimated H-index: 44
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