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Emre Soyer
Özyeğin University
14Publications
5H-index
65Citations
Publications 14
Newest
Steven H. Seggie10
Estimated H-index: 10
(ESSEC Business School),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University),
Koen Pauwels29
Estimated H-index: 29
(Northeastern University)
The continued survival of firms depends on successful innovation. Yet, legacy firms are struggling to adapt their business models to successfully innovate in the face of greater competition from both local and global startups. The authors propose that firms should build on the lean startup methodology to help adapt their business models while at the same time leveraging the resource advantages that they have as legacy corporations. This paper provides an integrated process for corporate innovati...
2 Citations Source Cite
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
(Pompeu Fabra University),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
Our society venerates experience. It feels right to trust our own experience and that of others. But experience also has adverse effects. Much learning is tacit in nature and, because people are typically unaware and uncritical of the conditions in which this takes place, experience can lead to false beliefs and subsequent actions can reinforce biases. We adopt a two-settings framework in which experience is conceptualized as being acquired in one setting (learning) and then applied in another (...
Source Cite
2015 in MIT Sloan Management Review [IF: 2.58]
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
,
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
Access to vast amounts of data and information can help organizations and governments make better policies, predictions and decisions. Indeed, more and more decision makers rely on statistical findings and data-based decision models when tackling problems and forming strategies. However well executed, the usefulness of an analysis depends on how the results are understood by the intended audience. Many behavioral experiments have shown that when the same statistical information is conveyed in di...
10 Citations Source
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
,
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
4 Citations Source
2015 in Cognitive Psychology [IF: 3.10]
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University),
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
(Pompeu Fabra University)
Abstract We test people’s ability to learn to estimate a criterion (probability of success in a competition scenario) that requires aggregating information in a nonlinear manner. The learning environments faced by experimental participants are kind in that they are characterized by immediate, accurate feedback involving either naturalistic outcomes (information on winning and/or ranking) or the normatively correct probabilities. We find no evidence of learning from the former and modest learning...
1 Citations Source Cite
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
(Pompeu Fabra University),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
Abstract Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statisti...
12 Citations Source Cite
2015 in Journal of Business Research [IF: 2.51]
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University),
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
(Pompeu Fabra University)
In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden Rule: its scope of application, the importance of highly improbable events, and the challenges of communicating forecasts.
2 Citations Source Cite
2015 in Journal of Business Research [IF: 2.51]
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
(Pompeu Fabra University),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people are effective at estimating the frequency of data accurately in environments that are characterized by plentiful, unbiased feedback. Thus, forecasters should provide decision makers with simulation models that allow them to experience the frequencies of potential outcomes. Be...
7 Citations Source Cite
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
(Pompeu Fabra University),
Tomás Lejarraga7
Estimated H-index: 7
(Max Planck Society),
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
(Özyeğin University)
Inference involves two settings: In the first, information is acquired (learning); in the second, it is applied (predictions or choices). Kind learning environments involve close matches between the informational elements in the two settings and are a necessary condition for accurate inferences. Wicked learning environments involve mismatches. This conceptual framework facilitates identifying sources of inferential errors and can be used, among other things, to suggest how to target corrective p...
14 Citations Source Cite
Robin M. Hogarth42
Estimated H-index: 42
,
Emre Soyer5
Estimated H-index: 5
Source
12