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Staggered release policies for COVID-19 control: Costs and benefits of relaxing restrictions by age and risk.

Published on Jun 18, 2020in Bellman Prize in Mathematical Biosciences
· DOI :10.1016/J.MBS.2020.108405
Henry Zhao1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Princeton University),
Zhilan Feng35
Estimated H-index: 35
(Purdue University)
Abstract
Lockdown and social distancing restrictions have been widely used as part of policy efforts aimed at controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Since these restrictions have a negative impact on the economy, there exists a strong incentive to relax these policies while protecting public health. Using a modified SEIR epidemiological model, this paper explores the costs and benefits associated with the sequential release of specific groups based on age and risk from isolation. The results in this paper suggest that properly designed staggered-release policies can do better than simultaneous-release policies in terms of protecting the most vulnerable members of a population, reducing health risks overall, and increasing economic activity.
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