Wisdom of the expert crowd prediction of response for 3 neurology randomized trials

To explore the accuracy of combined neurology expert forecasts in predicting primary endpoints for trials.We identified one major randomized trial each in stroke, multiple sclerosis (MS), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) that was closing within 6 months. After recruiting a sample of neurology experts for each disease, we elicited forecasts for the primary endpoint outcomes in the trial placebo and treatment arms. Our main outcome was the...