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Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic

Published on Feb 5, 2020in Annals of Internal Medicine19.315
路 DOI :10.7326/M20-0358
Ashleigh R. Tuite17
Estimated H-index: 17
(U of T: University of Toronto),
David N. Fisman41
Estimated H-index: 41
(U of T: University of Toronto)
Abstract
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  • Citations (7)
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Cited By7
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#1Zixin Hu (Fudan University)
#2Qiyang Ge (Fudan University)H-Index: 1
Last. Mo-MiaoXiong (University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston)H-Index: 45
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As COVID-19 evolves rapidly, the issues the governments of affected countries facing are whether and when to take public health interventions and what levels of strictness of these interventions should be, as well as when the COVID-19 spread reaches the stopping point after interventions are taken. To help governments with policy-making, we developed modified auto-encoders (MAE) method to forecast spread trajectory of Covid-19 of countries affected, under different levels and timing of intervent...
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#1Xiuli Liu (CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)H-Index: 5
#2Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana鈥揅hampaign)H-Index: 35
Last. Xuefeng Li (CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
view all 7 authors...
This paper proposed a quarantine-susceptible-exposed-infectious-resistant (QSEIR) model which considers the unprecedented strict quarantine measures in almost the whole of China to resist the epidemic. We estimated model parameters from published information with the statistical method and stochastic simulation, we found the parameters that achieved the best simulation test result. The next stage involved quantitative predictions of future epidemic developments based on different containment str...
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#1Ke WuH-Index: 2
#2didier DarcetH-Index: 1
Last. Didier Sornette (ETH Zurich)H-Index: 82
view all 4 authors...
The COVID-19 has been successfully contained in China but is spreading all over the world. We calibrate the logistic growth model, the generalized logistic growth model, the generalized growth model and the generalized Richards model to the reported number of infected cases from Jan. 19 to March 10 for the whole of China, 29 provinces in China, four severely affected countries (Japan, South Korea, Iran, Italy) and Europe as a whole. We dissect the development of the epidemics in China and the im...
#1Moritz U. G. Kraemer (University of Oxford)H-Index: 27
#2Chia-Hung Yang (NU: Northeastern University)
Last. Ruoran Li (Harvard University)H-Index: 1
view all 18 authors...
The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of c...
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#1Qianying Lin (UM: University of Michigan)H-Index: 4
#2Shi Zhao (CUHK: The Chinese University of Hong Kong)H-Index: 3
Last. Lin Yang (PolyU: Hong Kong Polytechnic University)H-Index: 19
view all 11 authors...
Abstract The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, originated in the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China, has claimed more than 2200 lives and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension...
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#2Qiyang GeH-Index: 1
Last. Mo-MiaoXiong (TMC: Texas Medical Center)H-Index: 45
view all 4 authors...
Background: Alternative to epidemiological models for transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in China, we propose the artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired methods for real-time forecasting of Covid-19 across China to estimate the size, lengths and ending time of Covid-19 across China. Method: We developed modified stacked auto-encoder for modeling the transmission dynamics of the epidemics. We applied it to real-time forecasting the lab confirmed cases of Covid-19 across China. The data were collect...
2 Citations
#1Jomar F. Rabajante (UP: University of the Philippines Diliman)H-Index: 5
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus has been identified to cause acute respiratory disease in humans. An outbreak of this disease has been reported in mainland China with the city of Wuhan as the recognized epicenter. The disease has also been exported to other countries, including the Philippines, but the level of spread is still under control (as of 08 February 2020). To describe and predict the dynamics of the disease, several preliminary mathematical models are formulated by various intern...
1 Citations