The ecology of competition: A theory of risk–reward environments in adaptive decision making.

In many choice environments, risks and rewards-or probabilities and payoffs-seem tightly coupled such that high payoffs only occur with low probabilities. An adaptive mind can exploit this association by, for instance, using a potential reward's size to infer the probability of obtaining it. However, a mind can only adapt to and exploit an environmental structure if it is ecologically reliable, that is if it is frequent and recurrent. We develop...