Examining the effect of social distancing on the compound growth rate of COVID-19 at the county level (United States) using statistical analyses and a random forest machine learning model

The goal of the present work is to investigate trends among US counties and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) growth rates in relation to the existence of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders in that county. This is a prospective cohort study. Compound growth rates were calculated using cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 21, 2020, to March 31, 2020, in all 3139 US counties. Compound growth was chosen as it gives a single number that can...