PNS303 BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE TRANSITION PROBABILITY MATRIX IN MARKOV MODELLING WITH INFORMATIVE PRIOR: AN EXAMPLE FROM THE ANALYSIS OF THE TREATMENT OF PATIENTS WITH PREDOMINANT NEGATIVE SYMPTOMS OF SCHIZOPHRENIA WITH CARIPRAZINE

When patient health state transition evidence is missing from clinical literature, analysts are tempted to make simplifying assumptions toward completing the transition matrices within a health economic model. We present how Bayesian statistical methods provide a solution for estimating the missing transitions. We used a previously published analysis of cariprazine compared to risperidone in patients with predominant negative symptoms of...