Quantifying the future lethality of terror organizations

Significance We develop and test a model that predicts the future lethality of a terror group. The model significantly increases the level of explained variance over existing models and presents early-warning signal predictions. Our early-warning model predicts the future lethality of a group using only a handful of events that occur soon after it emerges. Using the first 10 to 20 attacks or the first 10 to 20% of a group’s lifetime, our...