And the winner is . . . ? Forecasting the outcome of others’ competitive efforts.

People frequently forecast the outcomes of competitive events. Some forecasts are about oneself (e.g., forecasting how one will perform in an athletic competition, school or job application, or professional contest), while many other forecasts are about others (e.g., predicting the outcome of another individual's athletic competition, school or job application, or professional contest). In this research, we examine people's forecasts about...