Scenario planning, cognition, and strategic investment decisions in a turbulent environment

We explore how scenario planning contributes to cognitive dynamics and strategic investment decisions in a changing environment. Our research is based on an in-depth, longitudinal case study of Shell's ventures in Russia between 1994 and 2016. We show that Shell's scenarios did not foresee some major events that occurred in the turbulent Russian energy market. However, the scenarios envisaged the rising role of gas, the strategic relevance of...