Questioning Estimates of Natural Pandemic Risk
Abstract
The central argument in this article is that the probability of very large natural pandemics is more uncertain than either previous analyses or the historical record suggest. In public health and health security analyses, global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) have the potential to cause “sudden, extraordinary, widespread disaster,” with “tens to hundreds of millions of fatalities.” Recent analyses focusing on extreme events presume that...
Paper Details
Title
Questioning Estimates of Natural Pandemic Risk
Published Date
Dec 1, 2018
Journal
Volume
16
Issue
6
Pages
381 - 390
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Notes
History