Irradiance prediction intervals for PV stochastic generation in microgrid applications

The increasing interest in integrating volatile resources into microgrids implies the necessity of quantifying the uncertainty of photovoltaic (PV) production using dedicated probabilistic forecast techniques. The work presents a novel method to construct ultra-short-term and short-term prediction intervals (PIs) for solar global horizontal irradiance (GHI). The model applies the k-means algorithm to cluster observations of the clear-sky index...