Match!

Extremes in June rainfall during the Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: observational analysis and extended-range prediction

Published on Apr 1, 2016in Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society3.198
· DOI :10.1002/qj.2730
S. Joseph13
Estimated H-index: 13
(IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology),
A. K. Sahai19
Estimated H-index: 19
(IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
+ 7 AuthorsR. Phani2
Estimated H-index: 2
(IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)
Abstract
The onset/progression phase of theIndian summer monsoon (ISM) is very crucial for the agricultural sector of the country as it has strong bearing on the sowing of kharif crops, which in turn affects overall food grain production and hence food security. The recent ISMs of 2013 and 2014 exhibited quite distinct progression phases. While 2013 had one of the fastest advancement in the last 70 years, 2014 witnessed a comparatively lethargic progression phase. The major difference was felt in the early monsoon month of June, with 2013 (2014) monthly rainfall being +34% (−43%) of its long period average. Observational investigations reveal that, during June 2013, the monsoon trough was very active in its normal position favouring low-level positive vorticity generation and moisture convergence, whereas the absence of monsoon trough during June 2014 facilitated the prevalence of a strong low-level anticyclonic circulation over central India hampering the northward progression of the ISM. It is found that June 2013 (2014) was associated with (i) stronger (weaker) north-south tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient with positive (negative) TT anomalies over Eurasia and north of 60°N; (ii) negative (positive) SST anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean, northwestern Arabian Sea and equatorial eastern Pacific; (iii) stronger (weaker) monsoonal Hadley circulation; and (iv) stronger (weaker) Walker circulation in response to the negative (positive) SST anomalies over the equatorial Pacific. The study also examines the skill of an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) in predicting the observed contrasting behaviour during June 2013/2014 on extended range (∼15–20 days in advance) in real time. The EPS not only forecasted the observed discrepancy, but also predicted the influential role of the large-scale meteorological conditions prevalent during June 2013 (2014), thus demonstrating the remarkable skill of the EPS in predicting June extremes.
  • References (44)
  • Citations (5)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
7 Citations
1 Citations
2 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
References44
Newest
#1A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
#2R. Chattopadhyay (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 16
Last. N. Borah (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 9
view all 8 authors...
The real-time validation of any strategy to forecast the Indian summer monsoon rainfall requires comprehensive assessment of performance of the model on sub-seasonal scale. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach based on the NCEP-CFS version 2 models, as developed and reported earlier, has been employed to forecast the 2014 monsoon season on the extended range scale with 3-4 pentad lead time (where a pentad corresponds to five-day average). The present study reports the broad performance of the...
9 CitationsSource
#1N. Borah (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 9
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. A. Kumar (Silver Spring Networks)H-Index: 1
view all 7 authors...
Several aspects of real-time forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in 3–4 pentad lead time (extended range) are discussed in this study to explore the operational capability of the Climate Forecast System model version 2 (CFSv2) developed by National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). 2013 summer monsoon was a near excess monsoon year in terms of seasonal mean and was a result of rich diversity of phenomena including strong intraseasonal variations and intense northward propagations o...
12 CitationsSource
#1Jennifer A. Francis (RU: Rutgers University)H-Index: 6
#2Natasa Skific (RU: Rutgers University)H-Index: 5
The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification—the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming—in only the last 10–20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the ch...
47 CitationsSource
#1S. Abhilash (UM: University of Miami)H-Index: 1
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. A. A. KumarH-Index: 9
view all 9 authors...
AbstractThis study describes an attempt to overcome the underdispersive nature of single-model ensembles (SMEs). As an Indo–U.S. collaboration designed to improve the prediction capabilities of models over the Indian monsoon region, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model framework, developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-CFSv2), is selected. This article describes a multimodel ensemble prediction system, using a suite of different variants of the CFSv2 model to incr...
13 CitationsSource
#1A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
#2S. Abhilash (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 11
Last. M. Rajeevan (Government of India)H-Index: 33
view all 7 authors...
Optimization of computational efficiency is indispensable in the incorporation of numerical complexity in a pragmatic climate forecast system. From the resource optimization standpoint, the debate regarding, to what extent increased computing efficiency and expense on resources has reduced the signal-to-noise ratio and improved our understanding towards future climate states on different time scales, still continues. With the recent advancement of real time climate forecasts from different opera...
18 CitationsSource
#1S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. Arun KumarH-Index: 57
view all 9 authors...
The Indian summer monsoon of 2013 covered the entire country by 16 June, one month earlier than its normal date. Around that period, heavy rainfall was experienced in the north Indian state of Uttarakhand, which is situated on the southern slope of Himalayan Ranges. The heavy rainfall and associated landslides caused serious damages and claimed many lives. This study investigates the scientific rationale behind the incidence of the extreme rainfall event in the backdrop of large scale monsoon en...
45 CitationsSource
#1Judah CohenH-Index: 9
#2James A. Screen (University of Exeter)H-Index: 29
Last. Justin JonesH-Index: 7
view all 11 authors...
The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic warming has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than that simulated by climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including severe winters. The possibility of a lin...
639 CitationsSource
#1Dim CoumouH-Index: 24
#2Vladimir Petoukhov (PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)H-Index: 28
Last. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (PIK: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)H-Index: 55
view all 5 authors...
The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of high-impact summer extremes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Many of these events were associated with anomalous jet stream circulation patterns characterized by persistent high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves. Two mechanisms have recently been proposed that could provoke such patterns: (i) a weakening of the zonal mean jets and (ii) an amplification of quasi-stationary waves by resonance between free and forced waves in midlati...
99 CitationsSource
#1S. Abhilash (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 11
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. Bhupendra Nath Goswami (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 46
view all 8 authors...
Impact of bias correction of sea surface temperature (SST) forecast on extended range (ER, ∼3–4 weeks) prediction skill is studied using the bias-corrected forecasted SST from Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) as the boundary condition for running the Global Forecast System version 2 (GFSv2) model. Potential predictability limit is comparable (∼16 days) for both bias-corrected GFSv2 (GFSv2bc) and CFSv2. Prediction skills of active and break spells and of low-frequency monsoon intraseason...
16 CitationsSource
#1Felix Pithan (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 9
#2Thorsten Mauritsen (MPG: Max Planck Society)H-Index: 30
Changes in climate are amplified in the Arctic region. An analysis of the CMIP5 state-of-the-art climate models reveals that temperature feedbacks are the dominant factor in this amplification, whereas the change in reflectivity of the Earth’s surface as sea ice and snow melt makes only a secondary contribution.
379 CitationsSource
Cited By5
Newest
#1R. Mandal (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 5
#2S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
Last. D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
view all 7 authors...
Heat waves over India occur during the months of March-June. This study aims at the real-time monitoring and prediction of heat waves using a multi-model dynamical ensemble prediction system developed at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India. For this, a criterion has been proposed based on the observed daily gridded maximum temperature (Tmax) datasets, which can be used for real-time prediction as well. A heat wave day is identified when either (1) Tmax (a)≥ its climatological 95th pe...
Source
#1Dhrubajyoti Samanta (University of Aizu)H-Index: 3
#2Saji N. Hameed (University of Aizu)H-Index: 5
Last. Medha Deshpande (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 4
view all 7 authors...
A dry bias in climatological Central Indian rainfall plagues Indian summer monsoon (ISM) simulations in multiple generations of climate models. Here, using observations and regional climate modeling, we focus on a warm coastal Bay of Bengal sea surface temperature (SST) front and its impact on Central Indian rainfall. The SST front, featuring sharp gradients as large as 0.5 °C/100 km, is colocated with a mixed layer depth (MLD) front, in a region where salinity variations are known to control ML...
3 CitationsSource
#1Venkata Sai Gulakaram (NITR: National Institute of Technology, Rourkela)H-Index: 1
#2Naresh Krishna Vissa (NITR: National Institute of Technology, Rourkela)H-Index: 6
Last. B. Prasad Kumar (IIT-KGP: Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur)H-Index: 16
view all 3 authors...
Abstract Our study aims to understand the variability of oceanic mesoscale eddies during contrasting (2009 and 2013) monsoon seasons and the role of such eddies on atmospheric deep convection over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Oceanic eddies are detected and tracked using sea surface height anomalies (SSHA), by employing the Okubo-Weiss parameter eddy detection method. Significant differences in the SSHA and eddy activity are evident during the contrasting monsoon years. During the year 2013 (2009), ...
1 CitationsSource
Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) synoptic scale systems (low-pressure systems, LPS) are known to produce increased rainfall over central India (CI). Fidelity of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) at simulating the LPS and their characteristics is evaluated in this study using a feature tracking algorithm. The model is able to reproduce the clustering of LPS by monsoon intra-seasonal oscillations and the associated precipitation over eastern-central India. It is found that mean biases in ci...
5 CitationsSource