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S. Joseph
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
PrecipitationGeologyMonsoonMeteorologyClimatology
33Publications
13H-index
541Citations
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Publications 38
Newest
#1Suryachandra A. Rao (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 25
view all 48 authors...
AbstractIn spite of the Summer Monsoon’s importance in determining the life and economy of agriculture-dependent country like India, committed efforts towards improving its prediction and simulatio...
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#1R. Mandal (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 5
#2S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
Last. D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
view all 7 authors...
Heat waves over India occur during the months of March-June. This study aims at the real-time monitoring and prediction of heat waves using a multi-model dynamical ensemble prediction system developed at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India. For this, a criterion has been proposed based on the observed daily gridded maximum temperature (Tmax) datasets, which can be used for real-time prediction as well. A heat wave day is identified when either (1) Tmax (a)≥ its climatological 95th pe...
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#1A. Dey (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 2
#2R. Chattopadhyay (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 16
Last. S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
view all 7 authors...
Several methods are available to track the intraseasonal oscillation, namely the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). However, no methods to track both the modes in a uniform framework for real-time application exist. A new method to track the smooth propagation of the MJO and MISO is proposed to use it for real-time monitoring. The new approach is based on extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis of the combined field of meridionally averag...
1 CitationsSource
#1R. Chattopadhyay (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 16
#2Anjali Thomas (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)
Last. A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
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In the current perception of an increase in extreme precipitation events in a developing and densely populated country like India and the demands of high resolution forecast runs are high, the present study compares the statistical skill of free runs from an operational climate model run in two horizontal resolutions in simulating the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events over Indian region. The operational climate model is a version of the National Center for Environmental Predicti...
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#1S. Saranya Ganesh (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 1
#2S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
Last. R. Phani (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 2
view all 8 authors...
An attempt has been made in this study to evaluate the performance of a multi-model ensemble prediction system (MMEPS) in the extended range prediction of genesis and track of cyclonic storms (CS) over North Indian Ocean (NIO) during the onset phase of Indian summer monsoon. The MMEPS comprises of National Centres for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 and its atmospheric component, Global Forecast System version 2, at two different resolutions. In this study, we analyse ...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
view all 7 authors...
AbstractUnder the National Monsoon Mission Project initiated by the government of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences, an indigenous dynamical ensemble prediction system (EPS) has been developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology based on the state-of-the-art Climate Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2) coupled model, for extended-range (~15–20 days in advance) prediction. The forecasts are generated for the entire year covering the southwest monsoon, the northeast monsoon, and th...
1 CitationsSource
#1A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
#2R. Chattopadhyay (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 16
Last. S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
view all 6 authors...
Abstract The monsoon is the main rain-bearing season on the Indian subcontinent during boreal summer; it is distinguished by a clear seasonal cycle during June–September. It is characterized by prominent northward propagation of precipitation, leading to active/break cycles within the season. With improvements in the forecasts on the sub-seasonal scale in recent years, coherent, spatially seamless prediction across multiple spatial scales is now becoming possible. The predictability on sub-seaso...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Saranya Ganesh (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 1
#2A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
Last. R. Phani (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 2
view all 8 authors...
1 CitationsSource
#1S. Abhilash (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 11
#2R. Mandal (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 5
Last. M. Rajeevan (Government of India)H-Index: 33
view all 11 authors...
Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions’s climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15–20 days). Consider...
1 CitationsSource
#1A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
#2S. Sharmila (University of Melbourne)H-Index: 10
Last. A. K. Srivastava (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 1
view all 9 authors...
The duration and extreme fluctuations of prolonged wet or dry spells associated with intraseasonal variability during extreme monsoon have devastating impacts on agrarian-based economy over Indian subcontinent. This study examines the potential predictability limit of intraseasonal transitions between rainy to non-rainy phases (i.e., active to break phases) or vice versa over central Indian region during extreme monsoon using very high-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) daily rainfall datasets. The pres...
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