Dynamical-Empirical forecast for the Indian monsoon rainfall using the NCEP Coupled Modelling System – Application for real time monsoon forecast

The performance of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) operational coupled modeling system known as the Climate Forecast System (CFS) is evaluated for the prediction of all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the hindcast initialized during March, April and May with 15 ensemble members each for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005.The CFS’s hindcast climatology...