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D. R. Pattanaik
India Meteorological Department
14Publications
6H-index
201Citations
Publications 14
Newest
#1R. Mandal (Savitribai Phule Pune University)H-Index: 5
#2S. Joseph (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 13
Last.D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
view all 7 authors...
Heat waves over India occur during the months of March-June. This study aims at the real-time monitoring and prediction of heat waves using a multi-model dynamical ensemble prediction system developed at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India. For this, a criterion has been proposed based on the observed daily gridded maximum temperature (Tmax) datasets, which can be used for real-time prediction as well. A heat wave day is identified when either (1) Tmax (a)≥ its climatological 95th pe...
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#1A. K. Sahai (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 19
#2R. Chattopadhyay (IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)H-Index: 16
Last.S. Abhilash (CUSAT: Cochin University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 11
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Abstract The monsoon is the main rain-bearing season on the Indian subcontinent during boreal summer; it is distinguished by a clear seasonal cycle during June–September. It is characterized by prominent northward propagation of precipitation, leading to active/break cycles within the season. With improvements in the forecasts on the sub-seasonal scale in recent years, coherent, spatially seamless prediction across multiple spatial scales is now becoming possible. The predictability on sub-seaso...
1 CitationsSource
#1D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
#2M. Mohapatra (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 14
Last.Arun Kumar (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)H-Index: 57
view all 4 authors...
Hot winds are the marked feature of summer season in India during late spring preceding the climatological onset of the monsoon season in June. Some years the conditions becomes very vulnerable with the maximum temperature (T max) exceeding 45 °C for many days over parts of north-western, eastern coastal states of India and Indo-Gangetic plain. During summer of 2015 (late May to early June) eastern coastal states, central and northwestern parts of India experienced severe heat wave conditions le...
11 CitationsSource
#1D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
#2Arun Kumar (Centre College)H-Index: 1
The forecast skill of all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during June to September (JJAS) in the new version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)'s Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is analyzed by considering 28 years (1982–2009) retrospective forecasts. The spatial patterns of JJAS mean rainfall and its interannual variability is more realistic over the Indian monsoon region in CFSv2 as compared to previous version of NCEP's CFS. A hybrid (dynamical–empirica...
4 CitationsSource
#1D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
#2Arun Kumar (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)H-Index: 57
The real-time forecasting of monsoon activity over India on extended range time scale (about 3 weeks) is analyzed for the monsoon season of 2012 during June to September (JJAS) by using the outputs from latest (CFSv2 [Climate Forecast System version 2]) and previous version (CFSv1 [Climate Forecast System version 1]) of NCEP coupled modeling system. The skill of monsoon rainfall forecast is found to be much better in CFSv2 than CFSv1. For the country as a whole the correlation coefficient (CC) b...
3 CitationsSource
#1D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
The real-time multi-model ensemble (MME)-based extended range (up to 3 weeks) forecast of monsoon rainfall over India during the 2012 monsoon season is analyzed using the outputs of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) monthly forecast coupled model, National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 coupled model and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’ ensemble prediction system. Although the individual models show useful skill in predicti...
3 CitationsSource
#1D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
#2L. S. Rathore (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 4
Last.Arun Kumar (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)H-Index: 57
view all 3 authors...
The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over Ind...
2 CitationsSource
#1D. R. PattanaikH-Index: 6
#2M. MohapatraH-Index: 14
Last.Ajit TyagiH-Index: 7
view all 4 authors...
lkj & o"kZ 2010 esa ekulwuksRrj _rq ds nkSjku nks pOokrh; rwQku fufeZr gq, FksA tSls 'fxjh' uked vfr izpaM pOokrh; rwQku ¼oh-,l-lh-,l-½ 19 vDrwcj dks fufeZr gqvk vkSj ;g 22 rkjh(k dks E;kaekj leqnz rV dks ikj dj x;k vkSj nwljk 'tky' uked izpaM pOokrh; rwQku ¼,l-lh-,l-½ 2 uoacj dks fufeZr gqvk vkSj ;g psUuS ds mRrjh Hkkx ds lehi mRrjh rfeyukMq & nf{k.kh vka/kz izns'k ds leqnzh rVksa dks 07 uoacj dks ikj dj x;k ftldh otg ls rfeyukMq vkSj nf{k.kh vka/kz izns'k ds leqnz rVh; {ks=ksa esa u dsoy rhoz ...
5 Citations
#1D. R. PattanaikH-Index: 6
#2Ajit TyagiH-Index: 1
Last.Arun KumarH-Index: 1
view all 3 authors...
The performance of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) operational coupled modeling system known as the Climate Forecast System (CFS) is evaluated for the prediction of all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the hindcast initialized during March, April and May with 15 ensemble members each for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS's hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (l...
5 Citations
#1D. R. Pattanaik (India Meteorological Department)H-Index: 6
#2Arun Kumar (NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)H-Index: 57
The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS’s hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (...
59 CitationsSource
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