Scientific apophenia in strategic management research: Significance tests & mistaken inference

Research summary : This article uses distributional matching and posterior predictive checks to estimate the extent of false and inflated findings in empirical research on strategic management. Based on a sample of 300 papers in top outlets for research on strategic management, we estimate that if each study were repeated, 24–40 percent of significant coefficients would become insignificant at the five percent level. Our best guess is that for...