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Estimation and evaluation of uncertainty: a minimalist first pass approach

Published on Dec 1, 2000in International Journal of Project Management4.69
· DOI :10.1016/S0263-7863(00)00016-8
Chris Chapman22
Estimated H-index: 22
(University of Southampton),
Stephen Ward22
Estimated H-index: 22
(University of Southampton)
Abstract
This paper describes an approach to the estimation and evaluation of uncertainty designed for ease of use. It is designed to be easier to use than probability impact grid based approaches, and it links qualitative approaches in this format to quantitative approaches. It is based on a general view of uncertainty which incorporates ambiguity as well as variability and lack of data. A concern for identifying sources of uncertainty is one characteristic of the approach which flows from this perspective. Other characteristics include deliberate conservative bias to counteract persistent underestimation of uncertainty. It is set in the context of an iterative approach to an overall uncertainty management process. The example used to illustrate the approach involves project duration and cost estimation for bidding purposes.
  • References (14)
  • Citations (61)
References14
Newest
#1Chris Chapman (University of Southampton)H-Index: 22
#2Stephen Ward (University of Southampton)H-Index: 22
Last.Julia A. Bennell (University of Southampton)H-Index: 17
view all 3 authors...
#1Jeffrey P. ModerH-Index: 1
#2C. PhillipsH-Index: 1
Last.Elizabeth Thorpe DavisH-Index: 1
view all 3 authors...
Cited By61
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#1Aitor Couce-Vieira (CSIC: Spanish National Research Council)H-Index: 1
#2David Ríos Insua (CSIC: Spanish National Research Council)H-Index: 4
Last.Siv Hilde HoumbH-Index: 1
view all 3 authors...
#1Yong Zhong (ECUST: East China University of Science and Technology)
#2Zhigao Chen (ECUST: East China University of Science and Technology)
Last.Haibo Hu (ECUST: East China University of Science and Technology)
view all 4 authors...
#1Salim Rostami (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 2
#2Stefan Creemers (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 10
Last.Roel Leus (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 24
view all 3 authors...
#1Fiona C. Saunders (University of Manchester)H-Index: 6
#2Andrew H. Sherry (University of Manchester)H-Index: 14
Last.Andrew W Gale (University of Manchester)H-Index: 18
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Dec 1, 2015 in IEEM (Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management)
#1Roel Leus (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)H-Index: 24
#2Salim Rostami (Ecole nationale supérieure des mines de Saint-Étienne)H-Index: 1
Last.Stefan Creemers (Lille Catholic University)H-Index: 10
view all 3 authors...
View next paperTransforming project risk management into project uncertainty management