A prediction model for the secure issuance scale of Chinese local government bonds

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to calculate the local guaranteed fiscal revenue with the local fiscal revenue of 31 provinces, and predict their guaranteed fiscal revenue in 2018 with the artificial neural network (ANN). Design/methodology/approach The principal components analysis (PCA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model was designed to produce the inputs of KMV model. Then the KMV model was used...