Parameter uncertainty drives important incongruities between simulated chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton functional group dynamics in a mechanistic management model

Mechanistic phytoplankton functional group (PFG) models are used to develop water quality targets designed to mitigate cyanobacteria blooms, but it remains unclear whether PFG models adequately simulate cyanobacteria dynamics as most are evaluated against observations of chlorophyll-a instead of PFG biomass. To address this challenge, we analyzed an application of CE-QUAL-ICM, a 3D mechanistic PFG model used by water managers and modelers....