Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters

Laboratory research has shown that both underreaction and overreaction to new information pose threats to forecasting accuracy. This article explores how real-world forecasters who vary in skill attempt to balance these threats. We distinguish among three aspects of updating: frequency, magnitude, and confirmation propensity. Drawing on data from a four-year forecasting tournament that elicited over 400,000 probabilistic predictions on almost...