The effect of spatial variation for predicting aphid outbreaks

In order to improve forecasting of pest epidemics, it is important to know the spatial scale at which specific forecasts are reliable. To investigate the spatial scale of aphid outbreaks, we have developed a spatio‐temporal stochastic aphid population growth model and fitted the model to empirical spatial time series of aphid population data using a Bayesian hierarchical fitting procedure. Furthermore, detailed spatial data of the initial phases...