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A novel tool to assess the effect of intraspecific spatial niche variation on species distribution shifts under climate change

Published on Mar 1, 2020in Global Ecology and Biogeography5.667
· DOI :10.1111/GEB.13036
Youri Martin1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UCL: Université catholique de Louvain),
Hans Van Dyck37
Estimated H-index: 37
(UCL: Université catholique de Louvain)
+ 6 AuthorsNicolas Titeux15
Estimated H-index: 15
Abstract
  • References (50)
  • Citations (0)
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References50
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Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularl...
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AIM: Conventional species distribution models (SDMs) usually focus on the species level but disregard intraspecific variability. Phylogeographic structure and evolutionary significant units (ESU) have been proposed as pragmatic proxies to incorporate intraspecific differentiation in SDMs. Nevertheless, the efficiency of using these proxies in SDMs has been poorly investigated. We analysed how the projections of current and future climatically suitable areas can be affected when using ESU‐based o...
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#2Matthew L. Forister (UNR: University of Nevada, Reno)H-Index: 31
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Author(s): Nice, Chris C; Forister, Matthew L; Harrison, Joshua G; Gompert, Zachariah; Fordyce, James A; Thorne, James H; Waetjen, David P; Shapiro, Arthur M | Abstract: Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized, however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population-level processes. We examined population response to climatic ...
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Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the a...
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Ecological niches reflect not only adaptation to local circumstances but also the tendency of related lineages to share environmental tolerances. As a result, information on phylogenetic relationships has underappreciated potential to inform ecological niche modeling. Here we review three strategies for incorporating evolutionary information into niche models: splitting lineages into subunits, lumping across lineages, and partial pooling of lineages into a common statistical framework that impli...
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Cold-adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more r...
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Abstract Plants evolved in response to climatic conditions, which shaped their geographic distribution, functional traits and genetic composition. In the face of climatic changes, plants have to react by either genetic adaptation, phenotypic plasticity or geographic range shift. Their reaction potential depends on their phenotypic and genetic variability which can be evaluated through regional scale trait estimates, however, little is known here about tropical African plants. To start filling th...
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Understanding the climatic drivers of local adaptation is vital. Such knowledge is not only of theoretical interest but is critical to inform management actions under climate change, such as assisted translocation and targeted gene flow. Unfortunately, there are a vast number of potential trait–environment combinations, and simple relationships between trait and environment are ambiguous: representing either plastic or evolved variation. Here, we show that by incorporating connectivity as an ind...
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Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model li...
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