Subseasonal Forecasts of the 2018 Indian Summer Monsoon Over Bihar

Calibrated probabilistic forecasts of weekly rainfall were developed for the state of Bihar in northern India and issued in real time during the June–September 2018 monsoon period, up to 2 weeks in advance. The forecasts are based on subseasonal forecasts from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction CFSv2 model and were calibrated against observed gridded rainfall fields from the India Meteorological Department using canonical...