Obesity prediction by modelling BMI distributions: application to national survey data from Mexico, Colombia and Peru, 1988–2014

Background The prediction of future obesity patterns is crucial for effective strategic planning. However, disproportionally changing body mass index (BMI) distributions pose particular challenges. Flexible modelling of the shape of BMI distributions may improve prediction performance. Methods We used data from repeated national health surveys conducted in Mexico, Colombia and Peru at four or five time points between 1988 and 2014. Data from all...