Making biased but better predictions: The trade-offs strategists face when they learn and use heuristics
Abstract
The heuristics strategists use to make predictions about key decision variables are often learned from only a small sample of observations, which leads to a risk of inappropriate generalization when strategists misjudge regularities. Building on the statistical learning literature, we show how strategists can mitigate this risk. Strategies to learn heuristics that accept a bias, that is, a systematic deviation of predictions from actual...
Paper Details
Title
Making biased but better predictions: The trade-offs strategists face when they learn and use heuristics
Published Date
Sep 25, 2019
Journal
Volume
19
Issue
2
Pages
263 - 284
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