Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability

Volume: 116, Issue: 42, Pages: 20811 - 20812
Published: Sep 26, 2019
Abstract
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher’s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and used to evaluate our forecasts of seasonal influenza in the United States are not “proper” by definition (2). We thank him for raising this important issue. A key advantage of proper scoring...
Paper Details
Title
Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability
Published Date
Sep 26, 2019
Volume
116
Issue
42
Pages
20811 - 20812
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