Predicting Lake Quality for the Next Generation: Impacts of Catchment Management and Climatic Factors in a Probabilistic Model Framework

Lake ecosystems across the world are under combined pressures of eutrophication and climate change, which increase the risk of harmful cyanobacteria blooms, reduced ecological status, and degraded ecosystem services. In Europe, the third cycle of river basin management plans (2021–2027) according to the Water Framework Directive must take into account the potential impacts of climate change on water quality, including effects on relevant...