Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections

Volume: 7
Published: Sep 6, 2019
Abstract
The reliability of general circulation climate model (GCM) global air temperature projections is evaluated for the first time, by way of propagation of model calibration error. An extensive series of demonstrations show that GCM air temperature projections are just linear extrapolations of fractional greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Linear projections are subject to linear propagation of error. A directly relevant GCM calibration metric is the...
Paper Details
Title
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections
Published Date
Sep 6, 2019
Volume
7
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