Dynamic Probabilistic Hazard Mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: Integrating Vent Opening Maps and Statistical Surrogates of Physical Models of Pyroclastic Density Currents

Ideally, probabilistic hazard assessments combine available knowledge about physical mechanisms of the hazard, data on past hazards, and any precursor information. Systematically assessing the probability of rare, yet catastrophic hazards adds a layer of difficulty due to limited observation data. Via computer models, one can exercise potentially dangerous scenarios that may not have happened in the past but are probabilistically consistent with...