Summer hydrographic changes in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak projected in an ensemble of climate scenarios downscaled with a coupled regional ocean–sea ice–atmosphere model

This model study investigates summer hydrographic changes in response to climate projections following the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. We use the high resolution regional coupled ocean–sea ice–atmosphere model RCA4–NEMO to downscale an ensemble of five global climate projections with a main focus on the Baltic Sea and neighboring shelf basins to the west. We find consistently across the ensemble a northward shift in the mean summer position of the...