Assessing the skill of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a decadal prediction experiment

A modified approach to the assessment of the prediction skill of “modes of variability” is proposed and applied to a decadal prediction experiment. In particular, the skill of predicting the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated. The approach depends on separately calculating the EOFs of the observations, the ensemble of forecasts, and an ensemble of simulations made with the same model and external forcing. The skill of predicting...