Identifying emerging scholars: seeing through the crystal ball of scholarship selection committees

To better understand the added-value of the academic evaluation process, this paper studies the relationship between scores given by 105 evaluators to 1900 doctoral candidates who received a scholarship and their outcomes 10 years after the competition. I first find that a one point increase in total score is associated with a 1.4 percentage point (2.1% of a s.e.) increase in the probability of completing a Ph.D. in 5 years, with a 1.0...