Predictability of European winter 2016/2017

Winter 2016/2017 was one of the driest on record for central Europe and the United Kingdom. This was the result of blocked atmospheric circulation with high pressure centred over North-West Europe dominating the winter mean circulation pattern. Using large ensembles of simulated winters, we find that the observed winter 2016/2017 circulation was very similar in pattern and strength to the circulation associated with the top 10% of driest Central...