Negative Advertising Effects on Presidential Support Ratings During the 2012 Election: A Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Serial Dependency Study

In a literature where different research approaches generate inconsistent effects, we examine negative TV advertising effects on public support ratings of presidential candidates over time. Weekly national advertising and poll data from 2011 and 2012 were analyzed via (a) pooled time series analysis with growth curve modeling and (b) individual time serial dependency analysis with autoregressive integrated moving average. Study results support a...