Poverty dynamics and graduation from conditional cash transfers: a transition model for Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera program

The effects of conditional cash transfers (CCTs) on poverty and well-being have been widely studied. However, there is limited knowledge on how a CCT should respond to the dynamics of poverty. How should program administrators treat beneficiaries that exit poverty in period t-1, but exhibit a high probability of falling into poverty in period t? This is a relevant, yet unanswered question. This paper provides an analysis of the implications of...