Auto-Regressive Neural-Network Models for Long Lead-Time Forecasting of Daily Flow

Accurate reservoir-inflow forecasting is especially important for optimizing operation of multi-propose reservoirs that provide hydropower generation, flood control, and water for domestic use and irrigation. There are no previous reports of successful daily flow prediction using a 1-year lead-time. This paper reports successful daily stream flow predictions for that extended lead-time. It presents the first NARX (Nonlinear Auto Regressive model...