Impact of air pollution control policies on future PM2.5 concentrations and their source contributions in China

Published on Dec 1, 2018in Journal of Environmental Management4.865
· DOI :10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.08.052
Siyi Cai12
Estimated H-index: 12
(THU: Tsinghua University),
Qiao Ma6
Estimated H-index: 6
(THU: Tsinghua University)
+ 11 AuthorsRichard T. Burnett78
Estimated H-index: 78
(Health Canada)
Abstract To investigate the impact of air pollutant control policies on future PM2.5 concentrations and their source contributions in China, we developed four future scenarios for 2030 based on a 2013 emission inventory, and conducted air quality simulations for each scenario using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem (version 9.1.3). Two energy scenarios i.e., current legislation (CLE) and with additional measures (WAM), were developed to project future energy consumption, reflecting, respectively, existing legislation and implementation status as of the end of 2012, and new energy-saving policies that would be released and enforced more stringently. Two end-of-pipe control strategies, i.e., current control technologies (until 2017) and more stringent control technologies (until 2030), were also developed. The combinations of energy scenarios and end-of-pipe control strategies constitute four emission scenarios (2017-CLE, 2030-CLE, 2017-WAM, and 2030-WAM) evaluated in simulations. PM2.5 concentrations at national level were estimated to be 57 μg/m3 in the base year 2013, and 58 μg/m3, 42 μg/m3, 42 μg/m3, and 30 μg/m3 under the 2017-CLE, 2030-CLE, 2017-WAM, and 2030-WAM scenarios in 2030, respectively. Large PM2.5 reductions between 2013 and 2030 were estimated for heavily polluted regions (Sichuan Basin, Middle Yangtze River, North China). The energy-saving policies show similar effects to the end-of-pipe emission control measures, but the relative importance of these two groups of policies varies in different regions. Absolute contributions to PM2.5 concentrations from most major sources declined from 2017-CLE to 2030-WAM. With respect to fractional contributions, most coal-burning sectors (including power plant, industrial and residential coal burning) increased from 2017-CLE to 2030-WAM, due to larger reductions from non-coal sources, including transportation and biomass open burning. Residential combustion and open burning had much lower fractional contribution to ambient PM2.5 concentrations in the 2017-WAM/2030-WAM compared to the 2017-CLE/2030-CLE scenarios. Fractional contributions from transportation were reduced dramatically in 2030-CLE and 2030-WAM compared to 2017-CLE/2017-WAM, due to the enforcement of stringent end-of-pipe emission controls. Across all scenarios, coal combustion remained the single largest contributor to PM2.5 concentrations in 2030. Reducing PM2.5 emissions from coal combustion remains a strategic priority for air quality management in China.
  • References (50)
  • Citations (9)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
25 Citations
23 Citations
19 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
#1Chandra Venkataraman (IITB: Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)H-Index: 32
#2Michael Brauer (UBC: University of British Columbia)H-Index: 76
Last. Shuxiao Wang (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 49
view all 14 authors...
India is currently experiencing degraded air quality, and future economic development will lead to challenges for air quality management. Scenarios of sectoral emissions of fine particulate matter and its precursors were developed and evaluated for 2015–2050, under specific pathways of diffusion of cleaner and more energy-efficient technologies. The impacts of individual source sectors on PM 2.5 concentrations were assessed through systematic simulations of spatially and temporally resolved part...
23 CitationsSource
#1Forrest Lacey (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 4
#2Eloise A. Marais (University of Birmingham)H-Index: 16
Last. Christine Wiedinmyer (NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research)H-Index: 50
view all 8 authors...
The African continent is undergoing immense social and economic change, particularly regarding population growth and urbanization, where the urban population in Africa is anticipated to increase by a factor of 3 over the next 40 years. To understand the potential health impacts from this demographical shift and design efficient emission mitigation strategies, we used improved Africa-specific emissions that account for inefficient combustion sources for a number of sectors such as transportation,...
2 CitationsSource
#1Aaron Cohen (Health Effects Institute)H-Index: 13
#2Michael Brauer (UBC: University of British Columbia)H-Index: 76
Last. Mohammad H. ForouzanfarH-Index: 54
view all 29 authors...
Summary Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM 2·5 ) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resol...
715 CitationsSource
#1Jiandong Wang (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 15
#2Bin Zhao (UCLA: University of California, Los Angeles)H-Index: 21
Last. Jiming Hao (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 67
view all 18 authors...
Abstract China is one of the regions with highest PM 2.5 concentration in the world. In this study, we review the spatio-temporal distribution of PM 2.5 mass concentration and components in China and the effect of control measures on PM 2.5 concentrations. Annual averaged PM 2.5 concentrations in Central-Eastern China reached over 100 μg m − 3 , in some regions even over 150 μg m − 3 . In 2013, only 4.1% of the cities attained the annual average standard of 35 μg m − 3 . Aitken mode particles te...
79 CitationsSource
#1Peng Yin (CCDC: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 19
#2Guojun He (HKUST: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)H-Index: 6
Last. Maigeng Zhou (CCDC: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 39
view all 11 authors...
Objectives To estimate the short term effect of particulate air pollution (particle diameter 10 ) on mortality and explore the heterogeneity of particulate air pollution effects in major cities in China. Design Generalised linear models with different lag structures using time series data. Setting 38 of the largest cities in 27 provinces of China (combined population >200 million). Participants 350 638 deaths (200 912 in males, 149 726 in females) recorded in 38 city districts by the Disease Sur...
27 CitationsSource
#1Siyi Cai (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 12
#2Yangjun Wang (SHU: Shanghai University)H-Index: 14
Last. Jiming Hao (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 67
view all 6 authors...
In order to cope with heavy haze pollution in China, the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan including phased goals of the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) was issued in 2013. In this study, China's emission inventories in the baseline 2012 and the future scenarios of 2017 and 2020 have been developed based on this Action Plan. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) region, one of the most polluted regions in China, was taken as a case to assess the impact of phased emission control mea...
87 CitationsSource
#1Shilpa Rao (IIASA: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)H-Index: 25
#2Zbigniew Klimont (IIASA: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)H-Index: 58
Last. Massimo Tavoni (Polytechnic University of Milan)H-Index: 36
view all 27 authors...
Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we...
74 CitationsSource
#1Qiao Ma (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 6
#2Siyi Cai (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 12
Last. Richard T. Burnett (Health Canada)H-Index: 78
view all 13 authors...
Abstract. High concentration of fine particles (PM2.5), the primary concern about air quality in China, is believed to closely relate to China's large consumption of coal. In order to quantitatively identify the contributions of coal combustion in different sectors to ambient PM2. 5, we developed an emission inventory for the year 2013 using up-to-date information on energy consumption and emission controls, and we conducted standard and sensitivity simulations using the chemical transport model...
35 CitationsSource
#1Olivia Braspenning Radu (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)H-Index: 1
#2Maarten van den Berg (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)H-Index: 9
Last. Detlef P. van Vuuren (UU: Utrecht University)H-Index: 79
view all 9 authors...
Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels s...
12 CitationsSource
#1Lina Madaniyazi (QUT: Queensland University of Technology)H-Index: 6
#2Tatsuya Nagashima (National Institute for Environmental Studies)H-Index: 25
Last. Shilu Tong (QUT: Queensland University of Technology)H-Index: 58
view all 5 authors...
China is suffering from severe air pollution from fine particulate matter [≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)], especially East China. But its future trends and potential health impacts remain unclear. The study objectives were to project future trends of PM2.5 and its short-term effect on mortality in East China by 2030. First, daily changes in PM2.5 concentrations between 2005 and 2030 were projected under the “current legislation” scenario (CLE) and the “maximum technically feasible red...
41 CitationsSource
Cited By9
#1Wen-Wen Zhang (University of Auckland)
#2Bin Zhao (PNNL: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)H-Index: 21
Last. Kuo-Nan Liou (UCLA: University of California, Los Angeles)H-Index: 52
view all 6 authors...
Abstract Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general equil...
#1Hélène Cristini (International University of Monaco)H-Index: 2
#2Hannele Kauppinen-Räisänen (University of Vaasa)H-Index: 12
Abstract In less than a century, mass industrialization and consumption have altered the Earth’s ecosystem and its resources. The elementary resources of the global commons—namely, air, water, and land—have been depleted, and human beings are increasingly suffering of various negative harms as a result of poor air quality, undrinkable water, and food contamination. Through the lens of the waste and scarcity of these elementary global commons, this study argues that luxury may relate to access to...
1 CitationsSource
#1Xiaohong Xu (U of W: University of Windsor)H-Index: 1
#2Tianchu Zhang (U of W: University of Windsor)H-Index: 1
Abstract This study investigates spatial-temporal variability and trends of ambient PM2.5 in Beijing, China, using data collected from eight urban and four suburban stations. During 2013–2018, the city-wide annual PM2.5 concentrations decreased significantly by 40% (84 μg/m3 in 2013 vs. 50 μg/m3 in 2018). The decreasing PM2.5 trend is more pronounced in winter and during the heating season (November–March), in urban areas, and at the median and upper percentiles of PM2.5 concentrations. The 95th...
3 CitationsSource
#1Junri Zhao (Fudan University)
#1Junri Zhao (Fudan University)H-Index: 1
Last. Katherine Walker (Health Effects Institute)H-Index: 7
view all 10 authors...
Abstract China has been in the implementation phase of Domestic Ship Emission Control Areas (DECAs) regulation to reduce emissions of air pollutants from ships near populated areas since 2016. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of the busiest port clusters in the world, accounting for 11% of global seaborne cargo throughput, so future improvements in shipping emission controls may still be important in this region. To assess the impact of future ship emissions on air quality of coastal areas, ...
#1Xuguo ZhangH-Index: 1
#2Jimmy Chi Hung FungH-Index: 29
Last. Wei HuangH-Index: 1
view all 6 authors...
Problems with PM2.5 pollution in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) have been significantly reduced since the Chinese government released a series of emission control policies including the strengthened controls in the 13(th) Five-Year Plan. This study assessed the efficacy of emission control measures using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to provide data-driven support to government decision making, which is becoming increasingly important. This study aimed to quantitatively evaluate...
1 CitationsSource
#1Yali Zheng (SAE International)H-Index: 3
#2Xiaoyi He (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 4
Last. Ye Wu (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 44
view all 8 authors...
Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in addressing climate change and urban air quality concerns. China has emerged as the global largest EV market with 1.2 million EVs sold in 2018. This study established a novel life cycle energy use and emission inventory collecting up-to-date data including the electricity generation mix, emission controls in the power and industrial sectors, and the energy use in the fuel transport to estimate the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG), and air po...
2 CitationsSource
#1Jinqi Luo (Southwest Jiaotong University)H-Index: 3
#2Junke Zhang (Southwest Jiaotong University)H-Index: 20
view all 8 authors...
Abstract The Sichuan Basin has experienced serious air pollution from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the past few years with biomass burning has been identified as a major source of PM2.5 in this region. We used single particle aerosol mass spectrometer to investigate the characteristics of biomass burning particles in three interacting cities representing different types of urban environment in the Sichuan Basin. A total of 739,794, 279,610, and 380,636 biomass burning particles were detect...
1 CitationsSource
In the era of climate uncertainty in 2019, PM2.5 situations in Thailand are considered as big impacts to local livings in terms of health and well-being. This paper aims to investigate policies to decrease PM2.5 levels and to examine reliable networking systems. International and domestic policies are literally found for controlling traffic emission, open burning activities, public health and industrial zoning, when strong satellite networks can be proved by the reliability and accuracy of PM2.5...
#1Shihui Zhang (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 1
#2Robert Mendelsohn (Yale University)H-Index: 62
Last. Can Wang (THU: Tsinghua University)H-Index: 27
view all 5 authors...
Abstract This paper argues for an efficient pollution tax rate system that reflects the differentiation of marginal health damages of the individual emission sources. Although China is the first country in the world to launch a regionally differentiated pollution tax rate program, due to the absence of marginal damage estimation, whether this policy is efficient and equitable remains unknown. In this paper, we build an Integrated Assessment Model to measure the marginal damage of SO2, NOx and PM...
2 CitationsSource
#1Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo (NUS: National University of Singapore)H-Index: 2
#2Xiao-Bing Zhang (RUC: Renmin University of China)H-Index: 1
Last. Lunyu Xie (RUC: Renmin University of China)
view all 4 authors...
Abstract In this study, we show that changes in electricity prices in China have significant environmental consequences through its effect on industrial pollution emissions concentrations. To investigate this relationship, we pair a novel dataset of hourly smokestack-level pollutant emissions of industrial plants in Anhui, China with changes in hourly electricity prices. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) regression model, we find that pollution emissions from these plants have an inverse r...
1 CitationsSource