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Data-theoretic methodology and computational platform for the quantification of organizational mechanisms in probabilistic risk assessment

Published on Jan 1, 2017
Justin Pence4
Estimated H-index: 4
(UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign),
Yicheng Sun1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)
+ 3 AuthorsErnie Kee7
Estimated H-index: 7
(UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)
Abstract
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  • Citations (5)
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This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) ...
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#1LT Clare Dorsey (United States Coast Guard Academy)
#2Bo Wang (NU: Northeastern University)
Last. John R. Harrald (GW: George Washington University)H-Index: 16
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Abstract Assuring the quality, consistency and accuracy of safety data repositories is essential in safety-critical systems. In many systems, however, significant effort is required to identify, address, clean and repair data errors and inconsistencies, and to integrate safety data sets and repositories, particularly for risk analyses. Although some self healing and self repairing capabilities leveraging machine learning and predictive analyses have been employed to identify anomalies and monito...
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#1M.A.B. AlvarengaH-Index: 3
#2P.F. Frutuoso e Melo (UFRJ: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro)H-Index: 7
Abstract In the early 1990s, criticism over first-generation human reliability analysis (HRA) models, like THERP, SPAR-H, and ASEP, claimed that these models did not have a cognitive architecture capable of dealing with the human information processing. Later, new methodologies emerged, such as ATHEANA, INTEROPS, OMAR, and PROCRU (USA), CREAM, COSIMO, DYLAM/HERMES and MERMOS (Europe), and SEAMAID, CAMEO, and SYBORG (Japan), which represent a more complex modeling both for HRA and human-machine i...
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#1Ha Bui (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 2
#2Tatsuya Sakurahara (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 5
Last. Zahra MohagheghH-Index: 7
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Abstract Emergent safety concerns often involve complex spatiotemporal phenomena. In addressing these concerns, the classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) has limitations in generating the required resolution for risk estimations. The existing dynamic PRAs have yet to demonstrate their feasibility for implementation in a plant. In addition, due to the widespread use of classical PRA in the nuclear industry and by the regulatory agency, a transition to a full...
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#1Tatsuya Sakurahara (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 5
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Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are critical risk contributors in complex technological systems as they challenge multiple redundant systems simultaneously. To improve the CCF analysis in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), this research develops the Simulation-Informed Probabilistic Methodology (S-IPM) for CCFs. This new methodology utilizes simulation models of physical failure mechanisms to capture underlying causalities and to generate simulation-based data for the CCF probability estimation. ...
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#1Justin PenceH-Index: 4
#2Tatsuya SakuraharaH-Index: 5
Last. Ernie Kee (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 3
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Abstract Organizational factors, as literature indicates, are significant contributors to risk in high-consequence industries. Therefore, building a theoretical framework equipped with reliable modeling techniques and data analytics to quantify the influence of organizational performance on risk scenarios is important for improving realism in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) framework theoretically connects the structural (e.g., safety practices) a...
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#1Justin PenceH-Index: 4
#2Ian Miller (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 1
Last. Zahra MohagheghH-Index: 7
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