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A multiobjective optimization method considering process risk correlation for project risk response planning

Published on Oct 1, 2018in Information Sciences 5.52
· DOI :10.1016/j.ins.2018.07.013
Dengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
+ 3 AuthorsQianzhi Dai1
Estimated H-index: 1
(Hefei University of Technology)
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Abstract
Abstract Project risk response planning is an important component of project risk management to help ensure project success. However, thus far, the relevant research has ignored the correlations between risk factors during different project development subprocesses. This study proposes a novel risk response method by opening the black box of the project process and considering the risk correlations among different subprocesses to help practitioners create a practical risk response plan. In our method, we first identify process risk factors from two-dimensional criteria called risk categories and project development subprocesses. Then, we consider the risk correlations between different subprocesses to assess the true effect of each process risk factor. Finally, we build a multiobjective risk response model under resource constraints to minimize the total expected losses, the total expected schedule delay, and the total expected quality reduction. Based on the model, we obtain a set of Pareto-optimal risk response plans. Project managers can select a satisfactory risk response plan based on their experience and objective project requirements. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real software development project. We find that the risk response effects are better if managers control the process risks earlier. Moreover, the number of initial risk factors in each subprocess is an important reference in risk response resource allocation.
  • References (49)
  • Citations (2)
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References49
Newest
Published on May 1, 2019in IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 8.76
Chunbing Bao3
Estimated H-index: 3
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Dengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Risk measures play significant roles in determining the magnitude of risks. The traditional risk measures consider only the consequence $(C)$ and the probability $(P)$ and ignore the support of the knowledge behind to estimate $C$ and $P$ . Several researchers have suggested adding knowledge as a third dimension in the risk measures. However, the issues of how to embed the dimension of knowledge in the risk measures to output an explicit expression of the risk measure and how to measure the stre...
4 Citations Source Cite
Published on May 4, 2018in Journal of Risk Research 1.70
Chunbing Bao3
Estimated H-index: 3
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Dengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Extant research has focused upon assessing individual risks with the aid of risk matrices. Although risk aggregation is an important issue in risk management, aggregation of risks measured by risk matrices remains unresolved despite the wide usage of risk matrices. This paper proposes a framework to resolve the problem. We start from modifying the two notions of non-aggregatability of risk matrices, namely, qualitative description of inputs and non-comparability of different types of consequence...
6 Citations Source Cite
Published on Feb 1, 2018in International Journal of Project Management 4.69
Fei Zuo1
Estimated H-index: 1
(SAU: Shenyang Aerospace University),
Kailing Zhang1
Estimated H-index: 1
(UPenn: University of Pennsylvania)
Abstract Secondary risk in project risk management refers to the risk that arises as a direct result of implementing a risk response action (RRA). It is important for project managers (PMs) to consider the effects caused by the secondary risks in the process of RRA selection. The purpose of this paper is to propose an optimization method to address the problem of selecting risk response actions (RRAs) with consideration of secondary risk which is seldom considered in the existing studies. The op...
3 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 2018in Risk Analysis 2.56
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Chunbing Bao3
Estimated H-index: 3
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Dengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several curr...
7 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 2018in European Journal of Operational Research 3.81
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Xiaoyang Yao2
Estimated H-index: 2
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
+ 1 AuthorsDengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
We consider multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA) in the case of interactions between criteria. In dealing with interactions between criteria, fuzzy measures and integrals have demonstrated great advantages. Nevertheless, the determination of fuzzy measures has proven difficult because the capacities of not only single criterion but also all subsets of criteria need to be identified. Due to the value judgment essence of MCDA, the attitudes of the decision maker (DM) are typically modeled to i...
13 Citations Source Cite
Published on Dec 1, 2017in Information Sciences 5.52
Liang Wang19
Estimated H-index: 19
(Decision Sciences Institute),
Ying-Ming Wang4
Estimated H-index: 4
(Decision Sciences Institute),
Luis Martínez40
Estimated H-index: 40
(University of Jaén)
Abstract Urgent and critical situations or so-called emergency events, such as terrorist attacks and natural disasters, often require crucial decisions. When an emergency event occurs, emergency decision making plays an important role in dealing with it, and hence, its importance nowadays is increasing. In the real world, it is difficult for only one decision maker to take a comprehensive decision for coping with an emergency event. Consequently, many practical emergency problems are often chara...
23 Citations Source Cite
Published on Sep 1, 2017in Journal of Management in Engineering 3.27
Wooyong Jung7
Estimated H-index: 7
(Yonsei University),
Seung Hwan Han11
Estimated H-index: 11
3 Citations Source Cite
Published on Apr 1, 2017in International Journal of Project Management 4.69
Cinzia Muriana6
Estimated H-index: 6
(ISMETT),
Giovanni Vizzini24
Estimated H-index: 24
(ISMETT)
Abstract The paper presents a deterministic technique for assessing and preventing project risks, by determining the risk of the Work Progress Status. Firstly, the performance of the input factors, namely the costs, quality, and time, are detected, that reflect the Iron Triangle of the Project Management. As each phase ends, the actual values of the input factors are detected and compared with that planned, and corrective actions are taken for considering the impact of the actual performances on...
17 Citations Source Cite
Published on Mar 1, 2017in Information Sciences 5.52
Mithilesh Kumar2
Estimated H-index: 2
(IITs: Indian Institutes of Technology),
Chandan Guria13
Estimated H-index: 13
(IITs: Indian Institutes of Technology)
Abstract Like elitism, parent inheritance plays an important role to decide the quality of offspring and it is believed that the parents with high intelligence quotient (IQ) like to produce children with high IQ. Inspiring this concept, the improved pool of an initial random population involving the best set of chromosomes are incorporated in the framework of multi-objective optimization genetic algorithm. The effects of parent inheritance in the elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (...
11 Citations Source Cite
Published on Feb 1, 2017in Information Sciences 5.52
Lijia Ma14
Estimated H-index: 14
(Xidian University),
Maoguo Gong36
Estimated H-index: 36
(Xidian University)
+ 2 AuthorsHaifeng Du14
Estimated H-index: 14
(Xi'an Jiaotong University)
Many social systems have a set of opposite interactions such as friend/enemy, cooperation/competition and support/opposition. In these signed systems, there exist functional imbalances from the system-level view because of the existence of unbalanced interactions. However, it is difficult to compute the unbalance degree and transform unbalanced factors to balanced ones in real signed systems. Earlier studies tackled these two issues separately and gave a unique solution, and thus cannot be well ...
8 Citations Source Cite
Cited By2
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Published on May 1, 2019
Lei Wang (NUS: National University of Singapore), Mark Goh29
Estimated H-index: 29
(NUS: National University of Singapore)
+ 1 AuthorsLeon Pretorius
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Published on Jul 1, 2019in Information Sciences 5.52
Jianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Jin Zhang1
Estimated H-index: 1
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Weilan Suo1
Estimated H-index: 1
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Abstract To promote trade facilitation and regional integration, several cross-border transport infrastructure (CBTI) projects have been implemented and are accompanied by high complexity, difficulty, and uncertainty. This presents a multi-dimensional challenge for risk assessment. However, the challenge is amplified by the presence of dual interdependent effects induced by risk factor cascading propagation and project interaction. The purpose of this study involves developing a fuzzy decision a...
1 Citations Source Cite
Dengsheng Wu10
Estimated H-index: 10
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences),
Xiaoqian Zhu7
Estimated H-index: 7
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
+ 2 AuthorsJianping LiXiaolei19
Estimated H-index: 19
(CAS: Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Studies on software risk response theories and methods play an important role in improving the success rate of software project. With the requirement of software risk management, the existing single-objective risk response strategies section model is difficult to manage software risks effectively. This paper regards software risk response cost and software risk exposure as optimization objectives and proposes a multiobjective risk response strategies optimization model for software project. Furt...
2 Citations Source Cite