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Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060

Published on Dec 1, 2018in Population Health Metrics
· DOI :10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4
Ji Lin7
Estimated H-index: 7
(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention),
Theodore J. Thompson43
Estimated H-index: 43
(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
+ 4 AuthorsDeborah B. Rolka18
Estimated H-index: 18
(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Abstract
In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.
  • References (21)
  • Citations (11)
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References21
Newest
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#2Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 85
Last. Theodore J. Thompson (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 43
view all 4 authors...
Background Monitoring national mortality among persons with a disease is important to guide and evaluate progress in disease control and prevention. However, a method to estimate nationally representative annual mortality among persons with and without diabetes in the United States does not currently exist. The aim of this study is to demonstrate use of weighted discrete Poisson regression on national survey mortality follow-up data to estimate annual mortality rates among adults with diabetes.
4 CitationsSource
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Last. Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 85
view all 6 authors...
Background Estimation of incidence of the state of undiagnosed chronic disease provides a crucial missing link for the monitoring of chronic disease epidemics and determining the degree to which changes in prevalence are affected or biased by detection.
10 CitationsSource
#1Rui Li (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 1
#2Shuli Qu (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 5
Last. Nico Pronk (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 41
view all 8 authors...
Background Diabetes is a highly prevalent and costly disease. Studies indicate that combined diet and physical activity promotion programs can prevent type 2 diabetes among persons at increased risk.
50 CitationsSource
#1Ethan M BalkH-Index: 57
#2Amy EarleyH-Index: 13
Last. Patrick L. RemingtonH-Index: 43
view all 6 authors...
Background Trials have demonstrated the efficacy of rigorous diet and physical activity promotion (D&PA) programs for adults at increased risk for type 2 diabetes to reduce diabetes incidence and improve measures of glycemia.
130 CitationsSource
#1Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 85
#2Xiaohui Zhuo (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 12
Last. Theodore J. Thompson (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 43
view all 6 authors...
Summary Background Diabetes incidence has increased and mortality has decreased greatly in the USA, potentially leading to substantial changes in the lifetime risk of diabetes. We aimed to provide updated estimates for the lifetime risk of development of diabetes and to assess the effect of changes in incidence and mortality on lifetime risk and life-years lost to diabetes in the USA. Methods We incorporated data about diabetes incidence from the National Health Interview Survey, and linked data...
134 CitationsSource
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#2Jing Wang (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 10
Last. Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 85
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Importance Although the prevalence and incidence of diabetes have increased in the United States in recent decades, no studies have systematically examined long-term, national trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes. Objective To examine long-term trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes to determine whether there have been periods of acceleration or deceleration in rates. Design, Setting, and Participants We analyzed 1980-2012 data for 664 969 adults age...
294 CitationsSource
#1David Arterburn (Group Health Research Institute)H-Index: 34
#2Guilherme M. CamposH-Index: 31
Last. David Fisher (KP: Kaiser Permanente)H-Index: 12
view all 10 authors...
22 CitationsSource
#1David Arterburn (Group Health Research Institute)H-Index: 34
#2Andy Bogart (Group Health Research Institute)H-Index: 18
Last. Joe V. Selby (Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute)H-Index: 9
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Background Gastric bypass has profound effects on glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The goal of this study was to examine the long-term rates and clinical predictors of diabetes remission and relapse among patients undergoing gastric bypass.
248 CitationsSource
#1Giuseppina Imperatore (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 59
#2James P. Boyle (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 15
Last. Debra A. Standiford (Boston Children's Hospital)H-Index: 10
view all 12 authors...
OBJECTIVE To forecast the number of U.S. individuals aged RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used Markov modeling framework to generate yearly forecasts of the number of individuals in each of three states (diabetes, no diabetes, and death). We used 2001 prevalence and 2002 incidence of T1DM and T2DM from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study and U.S. Census Bureau population demographic projections. Two scenarios were considered for T1DM and T2DM incidence: 1 ) constant incidence over time; 2 ) fo...
209 CitationsSource
#1Edward W. GreggH-Index: 85
#2Yiling J. ChengH-Index: 41
Last. Lawrence E. BarkerH-Index: 38
view all 7 authors...
OBJECTIVE To determine whether all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates declined between 1997 and 2006, a period of continued advances in treatment approaches and risk factor control, among U.S. adults with and without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We compared 3-year death rates of four consecutive nationally representative samples (1997–1998, 1999–2000, 2001–2002, and 2003–2004) of U.S. adults aged 18 years and older using data from the National Health Interview Surveys li...
210 CitationsSource
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Diabetes is a complex and challenging disease that requires daily self-management decisions made by the person with diabetes. Diabetes self-management education and support (DSMES) addresses the comprehensive blend of clinical, educational, psychosocial, and behavioral aspects of care needed for daily self-management and provides the foundation to help all people with diabetes navigate their daily self-care with confidence and improved outcomes (1,2). The prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is proj...
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The use of digital technology has been shown to be effective in managing chronic conditions. Telemedicine and mobile application are two common applications of digital technology in managing diabetic foot ulcers (DFU). The facilitators and barriers of using it for DFU management are yet to be explored. This is a qualitative systematic review. Five bibliography databases and grey literature sources were searched (2000-2019). Two reviewers independently screened the citations, extracted the data, ...
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