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Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060

Published on Dec 1, 2018in Population Health Metrics2.95
· DOI :10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4
Ji Lin6
Estimated H-index: 6
(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention),
Theodore J. Thompson42
Estimated H-index: 42
(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
+ 4 AuthorsDeborah B. Rolka16
Estimated H-index: 16
(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Abstract
In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.
  • References (21)
  • Citations (11)
References21
Newest
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#2Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 81
Last.Theodore J. Thompson (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 42
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#1Ralph BrinksH-Index: 14
#2Barbara H. Bardenheier (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 21
Last.Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 81
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#1Rui Li (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 1
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#1Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 81
#2Xiaohui Zhuo (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 11
Last.Theodore J. Thompson (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 42
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#1Linda S. Geiss (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 48
#2Jing Wang (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 10
Last.Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 81
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#1David Arterburn (Group Health Research Institute)H-Index: 31
#2Andy Bogart (Group Health Research Institute)H-Index: 18
Last.Joe V. Selby (Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute)H-Index: 10
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#2James P. Boyle (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 15
Last.Debra Standiford (Boston Children's Hospital)H-Index: 8
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Cited By11
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#1GianLuca Colussi (University of Udine)H-Index: 5
#2Andrea Da Porto (University of Udine)
Last.Alessandro Cavarape (University of Udine)H-Index: 13
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#1Viet-Thi Tran (University of Paris)
#2Victor M. Montori (Mayo Clinic)H-Index: 10
Last.Philippe Ravaud (Columbia University)H-Index: 75
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#1Sharon Saydah (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 37
#2Karen R. Siegel (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 15
Last.Edward W. Gregg (CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)H-Index: 81
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#1Sofia Carlsson (KI: Karolinska Institutet)H-Index: 22
#2Tomas Andersson (KI: Karolinska Institutet)H-Index: 19
Last.Maria Feychting (KI: Karolinska Institutet)H-Index: 57
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#1Anne E. C. Nichols (URMC: University of Rochester Medical Center)H-Index: 2
#2Irvin Oh (URMC: University of Rochester Medical Center)H-Index: 1
Last.Alayna E. Loiselle (URMC: University of Rochester Medical Center)H-Index: 14
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#1Alva O. Ferdinand (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 8
#2Marvellous A. Akinlotan (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 2
Last.Jane N. Bolin (A&M: Texas A&M University)H-Index: 15
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