The Screening Illustrator: separating the effects of lead-time and overdiagnosis in mammography screening

Mammography screening increases incidence because cancers are detected earlier in time and because of overdiagnosis. We developed an Excel-based model to visualize the expected increase from lead-time amplified by increasing background incidence. Subsequently, we added overdiagnosis to the model. We constructed two hypothetical populations of women aged 50–79 in 5-year age and calendar groups: one with screening for women aged 50–69 and one...