Towards Improving the Efficiency of Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis for Flow in Porous Media via the Probabilistic Collocation Method

The characterization of flow in subsurface porous media is associated with high uncertainty. To better quantify the uncertainty of groundwater systems, it is necessary to consider the model uncertainty. Multi-model uncertainty analysis can be performed in the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. However, the BMA analysis via Monte Carlo method is time consuming because it requires many forward model evaluations. A computationally efficient...