Spatial and Time Variability of Drought Based on SPI and RDI with Various Time Scales

Published on Feb 1, 2018in Water Resources Management 2.64
· DOI :10.1007/s11269-017-1856-6
Abdelaaziz Merabti2
Estimated H-index: 2
(École Normale Supérieure),
Diogo S. Martins6
Estimated H-index: 6
(University of Lisbon)
+ 1 AuthorsLuis S. Pereira50
Estimated H-index: 50
(University of Lisbon)
Abstract
The spatial and temporal variability of droughts were studied for the Northeast Algeria using SPI and RDI computed with monthly precipitation data from 123 rainfall stations and CFSR reanalysis monthly temperature data covering the period 1979–80 to 2013–14. The gridded temperature data was interpolated to all the locations having precipitation data, thus providing to compute SPI and RDI with the time scales of 3-, 6- and 12-month with the same observed rainfall data. Spatial and temporal patterns of droughts were obtained using Principal Component Analysis in S-Mode with Varimax rotation applied to both SPI and RDI. For all time scales of both indices, two principal components were retained identifying two sub-regions that are similar and coherent for all SPI and RDI time scales. Both components explained more than 70% and 74% of drought spatial variability of SPI and RDI, respectively. The identified sub-regions are similar and coherent for all SPI and RDI time scales. The Modified Mann-Kendall test was used to assess trends of the RPC scores, which have shown non-significant trends for decreasing drought occurrence and severity in both identified drought sub-regions and all time scales. Both indices have shown a coherent and similar behavior, however with RDI likely showing to identify more severe and moderate droughts in the southern and more arid sub-region which may be due to its ability to consider influences of global warming. Results for RDI are quite uniform relative to time scales and show smaller differences among the various climates when compared with SPI. Further assessments covering the NW and NE of Algeria using longer time series should be performed to better understand the behavior of both indices.
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References48
Published on Oct 1, 2014in Agricultural Water Management 3.18
Lazar Tanasijevic2
Estimated H-index: 2
,
Mladen Todorovic12
Estimated H-index: 12
+ 2 AuthorsPiero Lionello28
Estimated H-index: 28
(University of Salento)
Abstract The Mediterranean basin is the largest world area having specific climatic conditions suitable for olive cultivation, which has a great socio-economic importance in the region. However, the Mediterranean might be particularly affected by climate change, which could have extensive impacts on ecosystems and agricultural production. This work focussed on the climate change impact on olive growing in the Mediterranean region considering the possible alterations of cultivable areas, phenolog...
48 Citations Source Cite
Published on Aug 1, 2010in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 7.80
Suranjana Saha17
Estimated H-index: 17
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration),
Shrinivas Moorthi8
Estimated H-index: 8
+ 49 AuthorsDavid Behringer20
Estimated H-index: 20
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the gene...
2,482 Citations Source Cite
Published on Feb 1, 2006in Water Resources Management 2.64
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano48
Estimated H-index: 48
The differences in spatial patterns of drought over a range of time scales were analysed by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In a climatic area with a wide range of precipitation characteristics (the Iberian Peninsula), Pearson III distribution is flexible enough to calculate the drought index on different time scales. The Pearson III distribution was adapted to precipitation frequencies at time scales of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Spatial patterns of drought were analysed by Prin...
217 Citations Source Cite
Published on Feb 1, 2015in Journal of Earth System Science 0.89
Mourad Lazri6
Estimated H-index: 6
,
Soltane Ameur6
Estimated H-index: 6
+ 2 AuthorsMounir Sehad2
Estimated H-index: 2
The present work studies the trends in drought in northern Algeria. This region was marked by a severe, wide-ranging and persistent drought due to its extraordinary rainfall deficit. In this study, drought classes are identified using SPI (standardized precipitation index) values. A Markovian approach is adopted to discern the probabilistic behaviour of the time series of the drought. Thus, a transition probability matrix is constructed from drought distribution maps. The trends in changes in dr...
6 Citations Source Cite
Elsa Moreira7
Estimated H-index: 7
(University of Lisbon),
João T. Mexia12
Estimated H-index: 12
(University of Lisbon),
Luis S. Pereira50
Estimated H-index: 50
(Technical University of Lisbon)
In the present study, an ANOVA-like inference technique is used aiming at to assess if Alentejo, southern Portugal, could be considered a homogeneous region for drought management purposes. First, Alentejo was divided into four sub-regions according to latitude (north and south), and longitude (west and east). Inside each sub-region, 10 weather stations were considered. The time series of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were obtained for these stations using precipitation data for the...
7 Citations Source Cite
Published on Apr 1, 2015in Water Resources Management 2.64
Alireza Shokoohi6
Estimated H-index: 6
(Imam Khomeini International University),
Reza Morovati2
Estimated H-index: 2
(Imam Khomeini International University)
This study intends to evaluate the performance of RDI and SPI in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran. The data base used in this research was GPCC for precipitation and NCEP/NCAR for temperature. This study aims not only to evaluate the performance of RDI and SPI, but also to find out the reason of Urmia Lake drying up as second largest hyper saline lake in the world. According to the results, Urmia Lake basin faced the most severe drought condition in the past half century in 1998–2000, and afterwards it co...
13 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 1996
Subhash Sharma32
Estimated H-index: 32
(University of South Carolina)
Applied multivariate techniques , Applied multivariate techniques , کتابخانه دیجیتال جندی شاپور اهواز
2,410 Citations
Published on Sep 1, 2008in Global and Planetary Change 3.98
Filippo Giorgi89
Estimated H-index: 89
(International Centre for Theoretical Physics),
Piero Lionello28
Estimated H-index: 28
Abstract We present a review of climate change projections over the Mediterranean region based on the most recent and comprehensive ensembles of global and regional climate change simulations completed as part of international collaborative projects. A robust and consistent picture of climate change over the Mediterranean emerges, consisting of a pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially in the warm season, except for the northern Mediterranean areas (e.g. the Alps) in winter. This drying...
1,347 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jul 1, 2011in Climate Dynamics 3.77
Ramzi Touchan22
Estimated H-index: 22
(University of Arizona),
Kevin J. Anchukaitis35
Estimated H-index: 35
(Columbia University)
+ 3 AuthorsAli Aloui3
Estimated H-index: 3
Changes in precipitation patterns and the frequency and duration of drought are likely to be the feature of anthropogenic climate change that will have the most direct and most immediate consequences for human populations. The latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models project future widespread drying in the subtropics. Here, we reconstruct spatially-complete gridded Palmer drought severity index values back to A.D. 1179 over Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The reconstructions provide l...
89 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 1998in Journal of Hydrology 3.73
Khaled H. Hamed12
Estimated H-index: 12
(Purdue University),
A. Ramachandra Rao15
Estimated H-index: 15
(Purdue University)
One of the commonly used tools for detecting changes in climatic and hydrologic time series is trend analysis. A number of statistical tests exist to assess the significance of trends in time series. One of the commonly used non-parametric trend tests is the Mann-Kendall trend test. The null hypothesis in the Mann-Kendall test is that the data are independent and randomly ordered. However, the existence of positive autocorrelation in the data increases the probability of detecting trends when ac...
834 Citations Source Cite
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Cited By2
Published on Feb 1, 2018in Water Resources Management 2.64
Abdelaaziz Merabti2
Estimated H-index: 2
(École Normale Supérieure),
Hind Meddi9
Estimated H-index: 9
(École Normale Supérieure)
+ 1 AuthorsLuis S. Pereira50
Estimated H-index: 50
(Instituto Superior de Agronomia)
Drought and wetness events were studied in the Northeast Algeria with SPI and RDI. The study area includes a variety of climatic conditions, ranging from humid in the North, close to the Mediterranean Sea, to arid in the South, near the Sahara Desert. SPI only uses precipitation data while RDI uses a ratio between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The latter was computed with the Thornthwaite equation, thus using temperature data only. Monthly precipitation data were obtained...
2 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jun 22, 2018in Atmosphere 1.70
Shouzheng Jiang1
Estimated H-index: 1
,
Ruixiang Yang1
Estimated H-index: 1
+ 2 AuthorsChuan Liang2
Estimated H-index: 2
Drought vulnerability characteristics and risk assessment form the basis of drought risk management. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought damage rates (DDR) were combined to analyze drought vulnerability characteristics and drought risk in Southwest China (SC). The information distribution method was applied to estimate the probability density of the drought strength (DS) and the two-dimensional normal information diffusion method was used to construct the vulner...
1 Citations Source Cite
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