Marked reduction in demographic rates and reduced fitness advantage for early breeding is not linked to reduced thermal matching of breeding time

Published on Dec 1, 2017in Ecology and Evolution 2.34
· DOI :10.1002/ece3.3603
Debora Arlt15
Estimated H-index: 15
(Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences),
Tomas Pärt37
Estimated H-index: 37
(Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)
Warmer springs may cause animals to become mistimed if advances of spring timing, including available resources and of timing of breeding occur at different speed. We used thermal sums (cumulative sum of degree days) during spring to describe the thermal progression (timing) of spring and investigate its relationship to breeding phenology and demography of a long-distant migrant bird, the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe L.). We first compare 20-year trends in spring timing, breeding time, selection for breeding time, and annual demographic rates. We then explicitly test whether annual variation in selection for breeding time and demographic rates associates with the degree of phenological matching between breeding time and thermal progression of spring. Both thermal progression of spring and breeding time of wheatears advanced in time during the study period. But despite breeding on average 7 days earlier with respect to date, wheatears bred about 4 days later with respect to thermal spring progression. Over the same time period, selection for breeding time changed from distinct within-season advantage of breeding early to no or very weak advantage. Furthermore, demographic rates (nest success, fledgling production, recruitment, adult survival) and nestling weight declined markedly by 16%–79%. Those temporal trends suggest that a reduced degree of phenological matching may affect within-season fitness advantage of early breeding and population demographic rates. In contrast, when we investigate links based on annual variation, we find no significant relationship between either demographic rates or fitness advantage of early breeding with annual variation in the degree of phenological matching. Our results show that corresponding temporal trends in phenological matching, selection for breeding time and demographic rates are inconclusive evidence for demographic effects of changed phenological matching. Instead, we suggest that the trends in selection for breeding time and demographic rates are due to a general deterioration of the breeding environment.
  • References (75)
  • Citations (1)
Published on May 1, 2001in Nature 41.58
Christiaan Both34
Estimated H-index: 34
Marcel E. Visser47
Estimated H-index: 47
Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird
697 Citations Source Cite
Published on May 1, 2016in Oikos 3.71
Nina K. Lany3
Estimated H-index: 3
(Dartmouth College),
Matthew P. Ayres39
Estimated H-index: 39
(Dartmouth College)
+ 3 AuthorsRichard T. Holmes57
Estimated H-index: 57
(Dartmouth College)
Phenological advances and trophic mismatches are frequently reported ecological consequences of climate warming. Trophic mismatches occur when phenological responses to environmental conditions differ among trophic levels such that the timing of resource demand by consumers becomes decoupled from supply. We used 25 years of demographic measurements of a migratory songbird (the black-throated blue warbler Setophaga caerulescens) to compare its breeding phenology to the phenology of both its cater...
13 Citations Source Cite
Published on Mar 1, 2011in Global Change Biology 9.00
Jenny A. Hodgson19
Estimated H-index: 19
(University of York),
Chris D. Thomas81
Estimated H-index: 81
(University of York)
+ 3 AuthorsElizabeth E. Crone32
Estimated H-index: 32
(University of Montana)
Many species appear to be undergoing shifts in phenology, arising from climate change. To predict the direction and magnitude of future changes requires an understanding of how phenology depends on climatic variation. Species show large-scale spatial variation in phenology (affected by differentiation among populations) as well as variation in phenology from year-to-year at the same site (affected predominantly by local plasticity). Teasing apart spatial and temporal variation in phenology shoul...
72 Citations Source Cite
Published on Sep 1, 2011in Global Change Biology 9.00
Emma Vatka4
Estimated H-index: 4
(University of Oulu),
Markku Orell32
Estimated H-index: 32
(University of Oulu),
Seppo Rytkönen24
Estimated H-index: 24
(University of Oulu)
Global climate change affects ecosystems via several trophic levels. We investigated changes in the timing of breeding in the willow tit (Poecile montanus) and timing of its caterpillar food resource in relation to warming springs in a boreal forest. We used generalized linear mixed effect models to study the importance of synchrony between the timing of breeding in willow tits and the caterpillar food availability on the breeding success, measured as nestling survival rate and mean nestling wei...
42 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jun 1, 2012in Ecology Letters 9.14
Jeffrey M. Diez20
Estimated H-index: 20
(University of Michigan),
Inés Ibáñez14
Estimated H-index: 14
(University of Michigan)
+ 5 AuthorsDavid W. Inouye45
Estimated H-index: 45
(University of Maryland, College Park)
Shifts in species phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to c...
99 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 2010in Ecology Letters 9.14
Louie H. Yang21
Estimated H-index: 21
(University of California, Davis),
Volker H. W. Rudolf26
Estimated H-index: 26
(Rice University)
Climate change is altering the phenology of many species and the timing of their interactions with other species, but the impacts of these phenological shifts on species interactions remain unclear. Classical approaches to the study of phenology have typically documented changes in the timing of single life-history events, while phenological shifts affect many interactions over entire life histories. In this study, we suggest an approach that integrates the phenology and ontogeny of species inte...
286 Citations Source Cite
Anders Pape Møller70
Estimated H-index: 70
Diego Rubolini36
Estimated H-index: 36
Esa Lehikoinen30
Estimated H-index: 30
Recent rapid climatic changes are associated with dramatic changes in phenology of plants and animals, with optimal timing of reproduction advancing considerably in the northern hemisphere. However, some species may not have advanced their timing of breeding sufficiently to continue reproducing optimally relative to the occurrence of peak food availability, thus becoming mismatched compared with their food sources. The degree of mismatch may differ among species, and species with greater mismatc...
392 Citations Source Cite
Published on Sep 1, 2007in Crop Protection 1.92
Brett S. Nietschke2
Estimated H-index: 2
(North Carolina State University),
Roger D. Magarey21
Estimated H-index: 21
(North Carolina State University)
+ 2 AuthorsEdward Jones2
Estimated H-index: 2
(United States Department of Agriculture)
Abstract Insect phenology models are widely used for decision support in pest management and more recently in phytosanitary risk assessments. The development of generic and flexible modeling tools means that phenology models can be quickly created using an insect's developmental threshold temperatures and degree-day requirements. To assist scientists and field practioners in the rapid development and deployment of phenology models, an Insect Development Database containing the developmental requ...
66 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 2013in Journal of Animal Ecology 4.46
Thomas E. Reed15
Estimated H-index: 15
Stephanie Jenouvrier23
Estimated H-index: 23
(Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution),
Marcel E. Visser47
Estimated H-index: 47
Summary Populations are shifting their phenology in response to climate change, but these shifts are often asynchronous among interacting species. Resulting phenological mismatches can drive simultaneous changes in natural selection and population demography, but the links between these interacting processes are poorly understood. Here we analyse 37 years of data from an individual-based study of great tits (Parus major) in the Netherlands and use mixed-effects models to separate the within- and...
111 Citations Source Cite
Published on Jan 1, 2011in Oecologia 3.13
Anu Valtonen12
Estimated H-index: 12
(University of Eastern Finland),
Matthew P. Ayres39
Estimated H-index: 39
(Dartmouth College)
+ 2 AuthorsReima Leinonen4
Estimated H-index: 4
Ecological systems have naturally high interannual variance in phenology. Component species have presumably evolved to maintain appropriate phenologies under historical climates, but cases of inappropriate phenology can be expected with climate change. Understanding controls on phenology permits predictions of ecological responses to climate change. We studied phenological control systems in Lepidoptera by analyzing flight times recorded at a network of sites in Finland. We evaluated the strengt...
33 Citations Source Cite
  • References (75)
  • Citations (1)