Addressing the epistemic uncertainty in maritime accidents modelling using Bayesian network with interval probabilities

Bayesian Network (BN) is often criticized for demanding a large number of crisp/exact/precise conditional probability numbers which, due to the lack of statistics, have to be obtained through experts’ judgment. These exact probability numbers provided by the experts often carry a high level of epistemic uncertainty due to the incompleteness of human knowledge, not to mention the hardness in obtaining them in the first place. The existence of...