Match!

Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures

Published on Nov 1, 2017in Environmental Research Letters6.192
· DOI :10.1088/1748-9326/aa8d27
Jesse Tack10
Estimated H-index: 10
(KSU: Kansas State University),
Andrew P. Barkley15
Estimated H-index: 15
(KSU: Kansas State University),
Nathan P. Hendricks8
Estimated H-index: 8
(KSU: Kansas State University)
Abstract
Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures.
  • References (32)
  • Citations (4)
📖 Papers frequently viewed together
92 Citations
4 Citations
78% of Scinapse members use related papers. After signing in, all features are FREE.
References32
Newest
#1P. V. Vara Prasad (KSU: Kansas State University)H-Index: 33
#2Raju Bheemanahalli (KSU: Kansas State University)H-Index: 5
Last. S.V. Krishna Jagadish (KSU: Kansas State University)H-Index: 9
view all 3 authors...
The increased probability of occurrence of more intense and frequent heat stress episodes and extended warmer nights in the future are major challenges towards sustaining agricultural production. Cereals, millets and oil seed crops respond differently to increasing temperature at different growth and developmental stages but are highly susceptible to heat stress during the gametogenesis and the flowering stages. Interestingly, the duration of stress exposure induces differential responses i.e. s...
46 CitationsSource
#1Juan Alejandro Perdomo (Rothamsted Research)H-Index: 8
#2Elizabete Carmo-Silva (Lancaster University)H-Index: 9
Last. Jeroni GalmésH-Index: 39
view all 5 authors...
The impact of the combined effects of heat stress, increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and water deficit on the physiology of major crops needs to be better understood to help identifying the expected negative consequences of climate change and heat waves on global agricultural productivity. To address this issue, rice, wheat and maize plants were grown under control temperature (CT, 25°C, VPD 1.8 kPa), and a high temperature (HT, 38°C, VPD 3.5 kPa), both under well-watered (WW) and water def...
15 CitationsSource
#1Bing Liu (UF: University of Florida)H-Index: 8
#2Senthold Asseng (UF: University of Florida)H-Index: 45
Last. Yan Zhu (NAU: Nanjing Agricultural University)H-Index: 60
view all 62 authors...
The impact of climate change on crop yield can be estimated using a variety of methods. Here, a multi-method ensemble is used to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ and improve overall confidence in projections of climate impacts on wheat yields.
96 CitationsSource
#1Elizabeth K Carter (Cornell University)H-Index: 2
#2Jeff Melkonian (Cornell University)H-Index: 11
Last. Stephen B. Shaw (State University of New York at Purchase)H-Index: 17
view all 4 authors...
Several recent studies have indicated that high air temperatures are limiting maize (Zea mays L.) yields in the US Corn Belt and project significant yield losses with expected increases in growing season temperatures. Further work has suggested that high air temperatures are indicative of high evaporative demand, and that decreases in maize yields which correlate to high temperatures and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) likely reflect underlying soil moisture limitations. It remains unclear whether...
16 CitationsSource
#1Jesse Tack (MSU: Mississippi State University)H-Index: 10
#2Andrew P. Barkley (KSU: Kansas State University)H-Index: 15
Last. Lawton Lanier Nalley (UA: University of Arkansas)H-Index: 13
view all 5 authors...
The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy involves the development of heat resistant varieties by breeders, combined with alternative variety selection by producers. However, the impact of heat on specific wheat varieties remai...
7 CitationsSource
#1Heidi Webber (University of Bonn)H-Index: 13
#2Frank Ewert (University of Bonn)H-Index: 45
Last. Thomas Gaiser (University of Bonn)H-Index: 24
view all 9 authors...
Crop models must be improved to account for the effects of heat stress events on crop yields. To date, most approaches in crop models use air temperature to define heat stress intensity as the cumulative sum of thermal times (TT) above a high temperature threshold during a sensitive period for yield formation. However, observational evidence indicates that crop canopy temperature better explains yield reductions associated with high temperature events than air temperature does. This study presen...
22 CitationsSource
#1David B. Lobell (Stanford University)H-Index: 66
#2Graeme L. Hammer (UQ: University of Queensland)H-Index: 64
Last. Scott C. Chapman (CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)H-Index: 48
view all 6 authors...
Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losse...
79 CitationsSource
#1Jesse Tack (MSU: Mississippi State University)H-Index: 10
#2Andrew P. Barkley (KSU: Kansas State University)H-Index: 15
Last. Lawton Lanier Nalley (UA: University of Arkansas)H-Index: 13
view all 3 authors...
Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985–2013 with location-...
92 CitationsSource
#1Tara J. Troy (Lehigh University)H-Index: 22
#2C Kipgen (Columbia University)H-Index: 1
Last. Indrani Pal (University of Colorado Denver)H-Index: 10
view all 3 authors...
Climate variability and extremes are expected to increase due to climate change; this may have significant negative impacts for agricultural production. Previous work has primarily focused on the impact of mean growing season temperature and precipitation on rainfed crop yields with little work on irrigated crop yields or climate extremes and their timing. County-level crop yields and daily precipitation and temperature data are pooled to quantify the impact of climate variability and extremes o...
37 CitationsSource
#1Senthold Asseng (UF: University of Florida)H-Index: 45
#2Frank Ewert (University of Bonn)H-Index: 45
Last. Yan Zhu (NAU: Nanjing Agricultural University)H-Index: 60
view all 53 authors...
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments wit...
485 CitationsSource
Cited By4
Newest
#1Yan Li (BNU: Beijing Normal University)H-Index: 10
#2Kaiyu Guan (UIUC: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)H-Index: 23
Last. Ming Pan (Princeton University)H-Index: 32
view all 6 authors...
Irrigation is an important adaptation strategy to improve crop resilience to global climate change. Irrigation plays an essential role in sustaining crop production in water-limited regions, as irrigation water not only benefits crops through fulfilling crops' water demand but also creates an evaporative cooling that mitigates crop heat stress. Here we use satellite remote sensing and maize yield data in the state of Nebraska, USA, combined with statistical models, to quantify the contribution o...
Source
Source
#1Jisang Yu (KSU: Kansas State University)H-Index: 2
#2Gyuhyeong Goh (KSU: Kansas State University)H-Index: 1
Detrimental impacts of extreme heats on the U.S. crop yields have been well-documented by a number of empirical studies. However, less have focused on within-growing season weather variation and the interaction between temperature and precipitation. The objective of this study is to emphasize the importance of disaggregating temperature exposures within growing season. To achieve our objective, we estimate the impact of within-season monthly temperature and precipitation variations on maize yiel...
Source
#1Sara Minoli (Humboldt University of Berlin)H-Index: 3
#1Sara Minoli (Humboldt University of Berlin)
Last. Thomas A. M. Pugh (University of Birmingham)H-Index: 24
view all 14 authors...
1 CitationsSource
#1Esha Zaveri (Stanford University)H-Index: 1
#1Esha Zaveri (Stanford University)H-Index: 1
Last. David B. Lobell (Stanford University)H-Index: 66
view all 2 authors...
Irrigation has been pivotal in wheat’s rise as a major crop in India and is likely to be increasingly important as an adaptation response to climate change. Here we use historical data across 40 years to quantify the contribution of irrigation to wheat yield increases and the extent to which irrigation reduces sensitivity to heat. We estimate that national yields in the 2000s are 13% higher than they would have been without irrigation trends since 1970. Moreover, irrigated wheat exhibits roughly...
4 CitationsSource
#1Anna OrfanouH-Index: 1
#2D. PavlouH-Index: 2
Last. Wesley M. PorterH-Index: 1
view all 3 authors...
Maize is one of the most highly produced crops around the world. Factors such as population density, solar radiation, temperature, availability of nutrients and water, and proper tillage method can have favorable results in increasing yield. This project began in 2015, at two different locations in Georgia (Tifton and Camilla), GA, USA, and has been evaluated for three consecutive maize growing seasons. In each location, a different irrigation method was applied; the University of Georgia (UGA) ...
1 CitationsSource
Projections suggest that the damages from climate change will be substantial for developing countries. Understanding the ability of households in these countries to adapt to climate change is critical in order to determine the magnitude of the potential damages. In this paper, I investigate the ability of farmers in India to adapt to higher temperatures. I use a methodology that exploits short-term weather fluctuations as well as spatial variation in long-run climate. Specifically, I estimate ho...
3 CitationsSource
#1Heidi WebberH-Index: 13
#2Munir P. HoffmannH-Index: 9
Last. Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei (GAU: University of Göttingen)H-Index: 15
view all 3 authors...
Source
#1X Li (Lehigh University)
#2Tara J. Troy (Lehigh University)H-Index: 22
As the global population increases and the climate changes, ensuring a secure food supply is increasingly important. One strategy is irrigation, which allows for crops to be grown outside their optimal climate growing regions and which buffers against climate variability. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources as it can lead to groundwater depletion and diminished surface water supplies. This study q...
Source